Liberal voters more likely to support use of notwithstanding clause than Conservatives, poll finds

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The Leger poll found that 39 per cent of Canadians say they have some familiarity with section 33, but only eight per cent described themselves as very familiar with it, while 31 per cent said they were just somewhat familiar.

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On the other side of the ledger, 34 per cent of Canadians said they were not very familiar with the clause, and 18 per cent said they were not at all familiar. Nine per cent said they had never heard of it.

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But when asked for their opinions on the general use of the notwithstanding clause (whether or not they knew what it was), 40 per cent of Canadians supported it to some degree, while 39 per cent were opposed and 21 per cent didn’t know. When asked about its pre-emptive use, support dropped to 31 per cent, while opposition rose to 46 and the “don’t knows” rose slightly to 23 per cent.

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A question about support of pre-emptive use of the clause resulted in closer numbers among voters, with both Liberal and Conservative support of about 34 per cent, and opposition from both groups at about 48 per cent.

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Liberal voters were also more likely to say they were familiar with the clause, with 48 per cent indicating some degree of awareness, as compared to 38 per cent Conservative voters.

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Last year Alberta invoked the clause on two occasions. The first was to end a teachers’ strike. The second (technically three times) was to restrict medical treatment such as hormone therapy for children under 16, to ban transgender athletes 12 and older from competing in female amateur sports, and to require parental consent for students to change their names or pronouns at school.

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In 2023 Saskatchewan had made a similar move regarding pronouns.

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Ontario has also used the clause twice in recent years. In 2021 it was to enforce a rule limiting third-party ad spending in the 12 months before an election. And in 2022 it was to prohibit education workers from striking, though the government later repealed that bill.

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Given that use of the notwithstanding clause in Ontario and Alberta was by conservative governments, one might expect support by Conservative voters there to be high. But total support in Alberta was just 36 per cent, and in Ontario 41 per cent, lower than in in British Columbia (44 per cent) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (45 per cent).

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Enns noted that in Manitoba, where he resides, the New Democratic Party under Premier Wab Kinew has introduced legislation that would require use of the notwithstanding clause to go before a court judge, “to basically block the pre-emptive use” of the clause.

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“So you see … the conversation around the notwithstanding clause starting to percolate in different ways, in the public discourse,” Enns said.

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The Supreme Court hearings wrapped up at the end of March, having heard from more than 60 appellants, respondents and intervenors, the most in the court’s 150-year history. Chief Justice Richard Wagner said the court will issue its judgment at some point in the future, but did not provide a date.

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The Leger poll reached out to 1,521 adult Canadians between April 24 and April 26. A probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.51 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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