KINSELLA: Contenders lining up to replace Trudeau

Published Jan 06, 2025  •  Last updated 6 minutes ago  •  3 minute read

Pictured are former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland

And they’re off!

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The Liberal Party’s leadership contenders, that is. While some have been quietly organizing for many months, does that give them an advantage?

Not necessarily.

Here’s the LPC race card, so far:

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: She was finance minister and deputy prime minister until Justin Trudeau clumsily attempted to fire her in December, and replace her with the unelected Mark Carney. Livid, Freeland hit back, calling Trudeau’s signature policies “expensive political stunts” — and warning him he faced electoral defeat. She’s been working the phones with Grits ever since. She’s a contender, but can Freeland win? She has two problems. One, she’s still going to be tarred with every Trudeau scandal and misstep. Two, going back to Brutus, history rarely ever rewards the ones who stab their leader in the back (or the front).

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Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s new finance minister. Photo by Kamara Morozuk /Photographer: Kamara Morozuk/Blo

DOMINIC LEBLANC: LeBlanc has been the Trudeau government’s Mr. Fix It and is well-liked by most, including Conservative premiers. He’s worn many hats: LeBlanc has been an advisor to Jean Chretien, held multiple senior cabinet portfolios, and studied at Harvard. Dom, as he’s called, is the son of former governor-general Romeo LeBlanc and was even Justin Trudeau’s babysitter. Some, however, would say that LeBlanc never stopped being Trudeau’s babysitter — and is therefore too close to Trudeau’s many scandals and controversies. Has had a leadership team in place for months.

Treasury Board President Anita Anand Photo by Spencer Colby /Postmedia

ANITA ANAND: Telegenic, affable, capable. Lots of ambition — but no name recognition. Currently, slated to lose her Toronto-area seat in a big way. Therefore, not a serious contender. If you can’t win your own seat, how can you win the country?

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Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry Francois-Philippe Champagne poses for a portrait at his office in Ottawa, on Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024. Photo by Spencer Colby /The Canadian Press

FRANCOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE: Frankie Bubbles, as Brian Lilley famously dubbed him, is a centrist Liberal.  He is well-respected within the party and represents Jean Chretien’s former Quebec riding. That’s the biggest problem he faces, however: he’s another Quebecer. The Liberal Party has a long tradition of alternating between Quebec and non-Quebec leaders. Many will accordingly say that it’s not Champagne’s turn.

Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly attends the 31st ASEAN Regional Forum at the 57th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Vientiane on July 27, 2024. Photo by SAI AUNG MAIN /AFP via Getty Images

MELANIE JOLY: Joly, like Champagne, is a francophone Quebecker. That’s a problem. Also a problem: she is arguably the worst cabinet minister in Canadian history, and has energetically destroyed the Liberal Party’s reputation with Jewish voters, likely for good. In the Trudeau government, there is no minister closer to the pro-Hamas position than Joly. If she wins, it’s lights out for a once-great political party.

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MARK CARNEY: He’s got the highest IQ, and he’s run big organizations. Born in Canada’s North, fluently bilingual, Carney is clearly favored by Trudeau and his circle. But he’s essentially Michael Ignatieff with a pocket calculator: if you were to look up the word “elite” in the dictionary, you’d see Carney’s high school graduation picture. One upside: if you are getting ready to enter tough negotiations with Donald Trump about debilitating trade tariffs, having the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England representing you is not a bad thing.

Christy Clark, the former premier of British Colombia, attends the US-Canada Summit, in Toronto on Tuesday June 11, 2024.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

CHRISTY CLARK: She may not be the one to beat, yet, but she’s the one the Liberals should pick. She’s brilliant and a scrappy political fighter, and it’s dangerous to underestimate her. Unlike most of the others, too, Clark is an outsider and untouched by the many Trudeau regime scandals. Unlike most of the others, she is a blue Liberal, and actually believes in balanced budgets. Unlike several of the other others, she is a woman who has held the highest public office (premier of British Columbia) — and it’s well past time that the Liberal Party had a female leader. (They are the only party which hasn’t.) The one who makes Pierre Poilievre nervous.

Other names will enter the race, but mostly just to improve their name recognition. They won’t matter.

The ones above are the contenders. They are the ones to beat!

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