John Ivison: The man from Manitoba could play a big part in keeping Alberta from separating

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The campaign for Alberta to remain in Canada is still taking shape. Mark Carney said at a press conference on Monday that he will be making “a very strong, positive case for Canada and a strong Alberta in a united Canada.”

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But, by definition, the prime minister embodies Ottawa, the land of shadow for many Albertans, and it is unlikely he will be the leading voice of federalism. He is already on the defensive over comments made on a hot mic on Monday.

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As he walked away from the press conference, he appeared to be referring to the Alberta premier in a conversation with housing minister, Gregor Robertson, when he said: “What are you doing? This is stupid. You have an off-ramp — take it.”

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That is the kind of derisory comment from Central Canada that could harden Alberta’s soft separatist voters.

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Other federalist forces are stirring. The Lead, Not Leave campaign has emerged, led by academics, former politicians and policy experts such as veteran Conservative thinker Ken Boessenkool.

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Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney and Harper-era Conservative minister Monte Solberg have put their weight behind a grassroots Vote to Stay advocacy group.

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Two former Alberta finance ministers — Jim Dinning and Travis Toews — have called on the government not to hold the referendum.

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Dinning told the Calgary Herald that it will force people to spend energy, time and money on politics, rather than on fixing economic problems.

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Toews said a full-blown independence referendum — namely, the one that would follow a successful vote-to-leave campaign this fall — would create a business environment “drenched in uncertainty.”

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The most important political campaign in the province’s history is underway.

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It would benefit the Remain side to co-ordinate. Things start to unravel when political egos collide. I recall during the Scottish independence campaign in 2014, John Prescott (Tony Blair’s former Labour deputy prime minister) said a visit north of the border by Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, would probably do more harm than good. They were meant to be on the same side.

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The question about who should speak for Canada is like asking who should sing tenor in the quartet. As Henry Ford famously responded: “Obviously the man who can sing tenor.”

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Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at polling firm Pollara, said he surveyed Albertans’ attitudes about political figures in March and found there is net positive sentiment in the province for both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

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Others who polled strongly were Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner and Jeromy Farkas, the mayor of Calgary.

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Arnold suggested that mayors may be less polarizing than well-known partisan figures such as Kenney, provincial NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, or former premier Rachel Notley.

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But he said in an email to National Post that more recent polling shows Kinew’s net positive polling in the province is higher than for all the Alberta politicians tested in March, including Carney, Poilievre, Kenney or Farkas.

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“It would need to be an Albertan leading the ‘Canada’ campaign since, ultimately, it’s a vote about Alberta. But there’s a role for voices from the rest of Canada to be part of the dialogue, and it’s hard to think of a better voice than Wab Kinew,” Arnold said.

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Whoever takes the reins of the Remain campaign would be well advised to employ the political skills of the Manitoba premier.

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He has already shown that few are more comfortable wearing the Team Canada jersey than he is.

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National Post

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