John Ivison: Poilievre may prove shrewd to back America’s alliance as Carney embraces Europe

Canadians' pugnaciousness toward the U.S. may not last long if Canadian troops stationed in Latvia were to be dragged into another European war. Photo by Cpl. Lynette Ai Dang/eFP BG Latvia Public Affairs and Imagery Section/Canadian Armed Forces

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The United States has informed its European allies of its plan to significantly cut its military contribution to NATO, the German news outlet Spiegel reported on Tuesday.

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The Europeans are scuttling to fill the gaps that will be left by departing American warships and fighter jets.

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But the ripple effects may be felt far beyond Eastern Europe.

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Could, for example, we see the Conservative party in Canada adopt a more transactional approach to NATO that would see it propose to divert resources from Europe to reinforce North America?

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As part of this strategic realignment, Canada has tried to diversify its alliances, joining the Security Action for Europe defence initiative and signing the Security and Defence Partnership. This has led to some speculation that Carney intends to deepen ties by applying to join the European Union, something he has explicitly ruled out, saying “that is not the pathway we are on.”

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But as the Liberals try to push Canada into Europe’s orbit, it would make sense for the Conservatives to focus on tightening trade and defence ties to the U.S.

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Conservatives suggest those discussions are already happening, as the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia as part of Operation Reassurance is increasingly at the forefront of a potential flashpoint with Russia.

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The Conservatives campaigned in the last election on rebuilding Canada’s military capacity in the North, establishing a permanent Arctic base in Iqaluit. At the same time, they pledged to “strengthen alliances and ties with countries that share our values.”

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But as Carney has rejected what he calls President Donald Trump’s “weaponization” of economic integration and pivoted toward European allies, Poilievre has been far more placatory toward the White House.

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Last week, the Conservative leader called on Carney to override the Canada Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), after it sought to force American streaming giants such as Netflix to pay more of their Canadian revenues to fund homegrown content.

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Poilievre argued that the cost would be passed on to consumers and could invite U.S. retaliation, but it had the added benefit of making him sound more accommodating toward the Americans.

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“I don’t think we’re becoming more Trumpian. I think it’s about being realistic and recognizing our geography and our own leverage,” said one Conservative MP.

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In a speech, the Conservative leader gave in New York in March, he said he disagreed with Carney’s claim that relations with the U.S. have been “ruptured.”

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“I reject the idea that we can afford to treat the current and real problems as a permanent end to our relationship. They are not. We have an incredible friendship. We live next door to each other and geography is permanent,” he said.