Is ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ a box-office disappointment?

Latest 'Star Wars' film opens to series-low in North America

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Published May 30, 2026  •  Last updated 22 minutes ago  •  5 minute read

The Mandalorian and Grogu in Lucasfilm's 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.' Photo by Lucasfilm

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After selling more than $100 million in tickets in its opening weekend, Star Wars fans should be celebrating. But is The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s box-office tally cause for concern?

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As the first film in the Star Wars franchise in seven years, it was expected to open at No. 1. But the Star Wars spinoff, which continues the popular series streaming on Disney+, is the lowest-grossing film in the franchise since Disney took control of Lucasfilm in 2012.

Before its release, early tracking indicated a lack of enthusiasm from general audiences as the studio pegged the Jon Favreau-directed feature to open in the $100-million range.

Solo: A Star Wars Story earned $103 million when it opened in May 2018 and is considered a box-office disaster. But with a reported budget of $165 million, Mando could find its way to profitability, preventing it from becoming a Solo-like bomb.

“The opening weekend  numbers on Mandalorian are solid considering the very mixed reviews, and the fact that many online critics have not looked favourably on the creative direction of the Star Wars franchise both on the big screen and the small screen for the past several years,” says Paul Dergarabedian, the head of marketplace trends for Comscore. 

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As the company has turned its attention to streaming, Star Wars has increasingly become hit-and-miss. Audiences embraced diving deep into the saga with shows like Ahsoka as well as the Rogue One prequel Andor. But other entries, including The Acolyte and Skeleton Crew, fell flat.

Still, some box office analysts believe it’s too early to gauge whether moviegoers have lost interest in Star Wars.

With the film holding an 88% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, Dergarabedian says families and kids are clearly embracing the film, and thinks word-of-mouth could give Mando a box-office boost in the weeks ahead. 

“This hits the reset for the future of the brand by ushering in a whole new generation of fans who weren’t in the theatre to critique the film, but there to have a good time at the movies,” he says.

But early tracking heading into its second weekend from Deadline showed Mando losing its No. 1 spot to A24’s buzzy thriller Backrooms.

Does Mando’s box office even matter?

Because it was less expensive to produce, Mando has an easier path to profitability once its worldwide receipts reach the $400 million mark.

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“As long as Disney keeps their budgets in check for Star Wars, like they did with Mando, these films will continue to pay off for the Magic Kingdom,” says Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock.

But the film also serves to feed Disney’s bigger ambition, which is merchandising, and the lovable Grogu has proven to be a hit on that front.

“The Mandalorian and Grogu will continue to expand the brand and keep Baby Yoda popular for years to come. That was the ultimate goal here,” Bock says.

The Mandalorian (Pedro Pascal) and Grogu in Lucasfilm’s ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu.’ Photo by Nicola Goode /Disney

Audience interest in going to the movies has been forever altered by the pandemic, so for any film, grossing more than $100 million in its opening weekend is cause for celebration.

“On top of the situational and financial differences between Solo and this movie, The Mandalorian and Grogu is releasing in a very different era for moviegoing,” Fandango director of analytics and Box Office Theory founder and owner Shawn Robbins tells Postmedia.

Noting the film’s strong ties to merchandising sales and opportunities to enhance the Star Wars brand at its theme parks, Robbins says Mando’s opening weekend haul should be compared to offshoot Marvel titles like last year’s Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts*.

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Those two entries were tied to the greater MCU, but leveraged secondary characters from Marvel’s movie and TV roster as a bridge to its next phase in cinematic storytelling.

After the muted reception to the last Star Wars movie to release theatrically, 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, Disney moved the franchise to streaming.

Starring Pedro Pascal as Din Djarin (a.k.a. The Mandalorian) and the adorable Yoda-like alien Grogu, The Mandalorian was Disney’s first small-screen hit when it launched on Disney+ in 2019.

Mandalorian (Pedro Pascal) and Grogu in Lucasfilm’s THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU Photo by LUCASFILM LTD.

Its success paved the way for a slew of series set inside the Star Wars universe, with stories taking place between films.

Bock says Disney’s “best chance at reigniting” the Star Wars brand on the big screen was to look to expand one of those streaming shows in cinemas.

“$100 million in 4 days is a good starting point — the holds will be key going forward,” he says.

Other critics think Mando played too much like an extension of the television show, including Erick Weber, who also runs the YouTube channel Midnight Movie Talk.

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“This movie is coming out at least two years too late,” he says. “Disney is extremely fortunate to have Ryan Gosling’s Star Wars: Starfighter next summer because this franchise is running out of juice.”

What comes next?

As for what the future holds for Star Wars, only a handful of projects are in the production phase. The second season of Ahsoka, a Rosario Dawson-led spinoff featuring a character who first debuted in the animated Clone Wars, will release next year. Several other animation shows are also in the works.

After his success in theatres with Project Hail Mary, Ryan Gosling has also recently wrapped production on Star Wars: Starfighter with director Shawn Levy.

Standalone films from Marvel boss Kevin Feige, Wonder Woman director Patty Jenkins and Game of Thrones creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have all been shelved.

But Daisy Ridley is set to return as Rey in her own Star Wars sequel that will follow her character after the events of The Rise of Skywalker “as she builds a new Jedi Order.”

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This image released by Lucasfilm Ltd. shows Daisy Ridley as Rey in a scene from “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.” Photo by Lucasfilm Ltd. /Walt Disney Studios

James Mangold (Logan, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny) will also direct a film that follows the dawn of the Jedi.

A new trilogy from X-Men scribe Simon Kinberg is also in the works.

According to Robbins, putting the fans first is the most important factor as Disney charts its next steps for Star Wars.

“All in all, Mando’s performance at or slightly above what was expected from it is a positive takeaway for Disney to build on ahead of the franchise’s 50th anniversary and release of Starfighter next year. Sometimes rebuilding passion held so dearly and fiercely in the pop culture world requires walking before running.”

Dergarabedian echoes this sentiment, pointing once again to the film’s high audience rating.

“Reviews might have been mixed, but audiences have wholeheartedly embraced pure escapist entertainment,” he says, grouping in Mando with other recent crowd-pleasers like Michael and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. “Fans are simply looking for a good time at the movie theatre.”

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