Is the Indus Waters Treaty the latest India-Pakistan flashpoint?

Islamabad, Pakistan – For much than 60 years, India and Pakistan person jointly managed the waters of six rivers of the Indus basin that gave commencement to 1 of the oldest quality civilisations.

Despite 4 wars and near-constant hostility betwixt them, the South Asian neighbours utilized the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to irrigate the fertile lands connected some sides of their border.

But that pact could look arsenic the latest flashpoint successful the fragile narration betwixt New Delhi and Islamabad, with India serving a announcement to Pakistan seeking to renegotiate the treaty’s terms.

Indian media reports accidental that connected September 18, India sent a ceremonial announcement to Pakistan, citing assorted concerns, including changes successful colonisation demographics, biology challenges, and different factors, asking for a reassessment of the treaty.

“India’s notification highlights cardinal and unforeseen changes successful circumstances that necessitate a reassessment of obligations nether assorted Articles of the Treaty,” the Indian announcement said.

So what does the announcement truly mean? Why is the Indus Waters Treaty truthful important to some countries – and what’s next?

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Like galore issues betwixt India and Pakistan, the origins of the IWT hint backmost to the Partition of India successful August 1947, erstwhile British regularisation ended, and India and Pakistan emerged arsenic 2 sovereign nations. Both countries, location to a combined colonisation of implicit 1.6 billion, are heavy babelike connected the waters of the rivers flowing from the Himalayas.

With some nations relying connected the aforesaid stream systems for irrigation and agriculture, an urgent request arose to negociate an equitable sharing of h2o resources, peculiarly to resoluteness issues of the cognition of an integrated irrigation strategy successful Punjab – a state which the British invested heavy in, but done which the caller borderline separating India and Pakistan passed through.

After 9 years of discussion, facilitated by the World Bank, then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and erstwhile Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed the IWT [PDF] successful September 1960.

Under the treaty, India controls the 3 eastbound rivers – Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas – portion Pakistan controls the 3 occidental rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. India is obligated to let the waters of the occidental rivers to travel into Pakistan with constricted exceptions.

The pact permits India to make hydroelectric projects connected the occidental rivers nether definite conditions. These projects indispensable beryllium “run-of-the-river”, meaning they cannot importantly change h2o travel oregon storage, ensuring Pakistan’s h2o rights arsenic the downstream riparian are not adversely affected.

What does India want?

In a nutshell, India has said that it wants to renegotiate the presumption of the treaty.

According to Anuttama Banerji, a governmental expert based successful New Delhi, India believes the existent presumption of the pact spell against it.

The Jhelum, Chenab and Indus – rivers Pakistan is entitled to usage – person overmuch much h2o than the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas, which India controls. In effect, Banerji said, India has entree to astir 20 percent of the full h2o covered by the treaty, portion Pakistan has entree to the remaining 80 percent.

That constricted entree to h2o from the rivers has grown into a large situation for India arsenic its colonisation has soared successful caller decades – it is present the world’s astir populous nation.

“India feels that the pact does not instrumentality into relationship newer threats and concerns specified arsenic colonisation accent and clime alteration and its after-effects wrong the precincts of the treaty,” Banerji, a erstwhile chap astatine the Washington, DC-based Stimson Center, said.

While India hasn’t clarified what circumstantial changes it wants to beryllium made to the treaty, galore analysts judge New Delhi volition question presumption that marque it easier than present to make hydropower and different infrastructure connected the occidental rivers whose h2o Pakistan is entitled to use.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has held its ain concerns implicit the implementation of the pact successful caller years.

What does Pakistan privation from the treaty?

Despite ongoing tensions betwixt India and Pakistan, the IWT mostly remained uncontroversial until the precocious 1990s erstwhile India announced plans to physique the Baglihar Hydropower Project successful Indian-administered Kashmir, connected the Chenab.

More recently, India has besides built the Kishanganga hydroelectric works connected the Jhelum river.

“Pakistan’s statement is that the mode India is designing these dams violates its implicit work to fto the waters flow,” Ahmed Rafay Alam, a Lahore-based biology lawyer, said.

India, connected the different hand, insists that its projects comply with the treaty’s stipulations. “India argues that if it intended to artifact h2o flow, it would person to flood its ain territory, which is impractical,” Alam added.

Officially, though, Pakistan has not sought immoderate changes to the pact itself.

A spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, connected Thursday said that the pact was the “gold standard” of bilateral treaties and added that Pakistan remains “fully committed” to its implementation.

“Pakistan believes that it is our corporate work to support ecological balance, support our situation and debar measures which whitethorn person adverse implications for the environment. The 2 countries person a mechanics of Indus commissioners, and we judge each issues pertaining to this pact tin beryllium discussed successful this mechanism,” Baloch said during her play property briefing.

Where does the pact acceptable into broader India-Pakistan relations?

It’s an important portion of it – and though it’s centred connected a method taxable and yet relates to a quality essential, water, it has not been immune to the region’s geopolitics.

In September 2016, equipped fighters attacked an Indian service basal successful Uri successful Indian-administered Kashmir. At slightest 19 soldiers were killed. India blamed Pakistan for the attack. Islamabad denied immoderate role.

But successful the aftermath of the attack, Indian officials said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had indicated that New Delhi mightiness weaponise India’s presumption arsenic the precocious riparian authorities wrong the Indus Valley to punish Pakistan done restrictions connected water. “Blood and h2o cannot travel together,” Modi told them, the officials told aggregate Indian journalists.

According to Erum Sattar, a lecturer successful the sustainable h2o absorption programme astatine Tufts University, “Any effort to presumption h2o sharing arsenic purely a technocratic substance divorced from political, geopolitical, and fiscal realities is simplistic and myopic.”

“The IWT is contentious due to the fact that of the geography and territorial power exercised by some countries. The rivers travel downstream, and Pakistan, being the little riparian, is heavy babelike connected humanities h2o flows,” Sattar told Al Jazeera.

Banerji, the New Delhi-based analyst, said that portion the pact itself isn’t controversial, its method quality means determination is small wide nationalist knowing of its provisions. That successful crook allows governmental stakeholders to usage the pact arsenic bait to escalate tensions wrong India and Pakistan.

“For instance, we are lone alert that India has asked for a modification oregon revision of the treaty, but the details are not disposable successful the nationalist domain,” she told Al Jazeera.

What are the arguments presented by the 2 countries?

According to Sattar, Pakistan’s presumption is that it has a historical close to the occidental rivers, arsenic laid retired successful the treaty. Pakistan has relied connected these rivers to support its immense cultivation infrastructure since the assemblage era.

However, she says that India’s presumption has gradually shifted implicit caller decades, arsenic it has sought to physique much infrastructure to power much of the waters of the occidental rivers, chiefly assigned to travel into Pakistan.

“India present progressively makes the argument, arsenic it seems to person done successful the latest announcement issued to Pakistan, that changing biology realities, shifting demographics and the wide request for economical improvement and a reliable and ‘greener’ powerfulness proviso to conscionable those economical improvement needs means that India would similar to reopen the pact to negociate presumably amended presumption for itself,” she said.

Alam, the lawyer, says that this pact is the lone transboundary h2o pact connected world which “divides waters and does not stock them”.

“All different treaties speech astir however waters passing done galore countries are ‘shared’ among and however waters are to beryllium respected. But this remains the lone 1 wherever h2o is ‘divided’ instead,” he added.

In January 2023, India accused Pakistan of “intransigence” regarding the treaty’s implementation, aft Islamabad raised repeated objections to hydroelectric projects being built by India connected the occidental rivers and took the substance to The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).

India has rejected the PCA’s jurisdiction implicit the dispute, arguing that Pakistan had failed to archetypal exhaust different quality solution mechanisms successful the Indus Water Treaty.

What is the quality solution mechanics nether the treaty?

Under the IWT, the countries person established a Permanent Indus Commission, with a commissioner from each side.

Minor disputes are addressed done the commission, but unresolved issues tin beryllium referred to a neutral adept appointed by the World Bank, which facilitates the treaty’s dispute solution mechanism.

Pakistan had initially sought the assignment of a neutral adept to settee the quality implicit Indian projects connected occidental rivers but had past approached the PCA. India, meanwhile, past sought the assignment of a neutral expert.

The World Bank decided, successful 2022, to some name a neutral adept and let proceedings astatine the PCA. India lone participates successful the neutral expert’s mediations.

Has the pact served its purpose?

According to Sattar, the IWT has mostly been a success. However, erstwhile territorial power issues – particularly concerning Kashmir – are factored in, the concern becomes much complicated.

The Kashmir valley, a beauteous yet disputed region, has been the origin of aggregate wars betwixt India and Pakistan since 1947. Both nations assertion the portion successful its entirety, though each administers parts of it.

“The IWT was designed to support the Kashmir struggle from escalating into a larger confrontation portion ensuring h2o issues were managed to immoderate extent,” Sattar said.

Alam excessively said that helium believes that the pact has mostly served its intent implicit the past six decades.

What is the aboriginal of the treaty?

Since India’s determination successful August 2019 to revoke Indian-administered Kashmir’s autonomy, relations betwixt the 2 countries person deteriorated further.

Sattar believes that the champion mode to determination guardant with the pact is to instrumentality to the “spirit” successful which it was primitively negotiated.

Yet, arsenic India’s planetary power continues to rise, Pakistan volition apt prosecute its water-related claims done planetary law, portion India volition leverage its geopolitical value to asseverate its position, the world said.