Is Carney a Nobel Peace Prize contender? Here’s what one prediction market says

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also charts high on a Kalshi prediction market contract for who will be the 2026 Time Magazine person of the year. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia

Article content

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded early next month and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s name has entered the conversation about this year’s recipient, according to people placing wagers on Kalshi, the popular U.S. prediction market website.

Article content

As of Monday afternoon, the 61-year-old became one of the favourites to be named the winner on Oct. 9 with around a nine per cent chance. He’s behind only the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) providing aid to civil-war-torn Sudan (14 per cent), Doctors Without Borders (11 per cent) and the Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba and his Save Ukraine initiative (10 per cent).

Article content

Article content

Article content

Earlier in the day, Carney was the favourite at 14 per cent, as reported by Covers.com.

Article content

Article content

Kalshi’s “event contract” markets are binary yes-no financial bets on real-world events regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Article content

In addition to predicting the outcome of several sports events, other trending questions Monday included which party — Republican or Democrat — would win the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, and who would be eliminated on the next episode of Dancing with the Stars.

Article content

Each contract has a price between US$0.01 and $0.99 and the price you pay reflects what the market thinks the chances are. In Carney’s case, each “Yes” contract costs $0.08, reflected in his roughly nine per cent chance. Contracts can also be sold before an event takes place if the bettor feels it’s not going to go their way.

Article content

But no matter the price at which you purchased a contract, it settles at $1 if the event occurs and the bettor reaps the benefit of the increase in the contract. Choose wrong and you get nothing. So, if someone were to buy $10 worth of “yes” contracts at $0.08 and Carney emerged as the laureate winner, they’d make more than $100 because the value of the contract increased by more than 10 times.

Article content

Article content

Other names high on Kalshi’s list when National Post checked it include Russian political activist and economist Yulia Navalnaya (eight per cent), Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate (seven per cent) and Save the Children (seven per cent). Importantly, odds fluctuate often as users buy and sell contracts.

Article content

Article content

U.S. President Donald Trump, who lost the 2025 honour to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado only to have her dedicate the award to him, is listed at just a one per cent chance.

Article content

As the face of Canada’s trade battle against Trump and his administration, Carney’s international profile has been on the rise, which could account for his recent arrival on the charts, Covers reported.

Article content

Another Kalshi contract gives him a 20 per cent chance of being named Time magazine’s person of the year — an honour usually announced in mid-December — putting him second behind New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (30 per cent).

Article content

But over at Polymarket, an international prediction market with more bets, Carney isn’t even on the chart. Leaders are Sudan’s ERRs (16 per cent), Save the Children (seven per cent) and Palestinian pediatrician and neonatologist Hussam Idris Abu Safiya (seven per cent).