Iran-backed Houthis seize strategic Mayun Island: Can they hold it?

Houthi forces person taken power of the land of Mayun – besides known arsenic Perim – tightening their grip connected the eastbound seashore of the Red Sea and giving the radical a strategical foothold successful the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The takeover was confirmed connected Friday by a elder subject authoritative of Yemen’s internationally recognised authorities and a Houthi official, according to The Associated Press quality agency.

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Analysts accidental the seizure represents a important subject beforehand that, if the Houthis tin consolidate, could reshape their struggle with Saudi-backed forces successful Yemen portion benefiting their backer Iran successful its broader determination struggle.

Here is what we cognize astir the island’s seizure, whether the Houthis tin consolidate power and what it means for Yemen and beyond.

Why is Mayun Island important?

Mayun Island is simply a 13sq km (five quadrate mile) volcanic land successful the bosom of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the constrictive confederate corridor astatine the entranceway to the Red Sea.

In 2021, the Saudi-led conjugation warring the Houthis said it had a beingness connected the island, aft reports emerged of a UAE-linked airbase being built there. The UAE ended its engagement successful the Yemen struggle astatine the extremity of past twelvemonth and withdrew troops, but the presumption of the airbase connected Mayun Island is unclear.

By controlling the island, which splits Bab al-Mandeb into 2 channels, the Houthis present person a physical outpost successful the strait.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is important to planetary shipping arsenic it is the confederate entranceway to the Red Sea with the Suez Canal astatine its bluish end. The strait has go adjacent much important to shipping since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz successful the Gulf connected the different broadside of the Arabian Peninsula by the US-Israel warfare connected Iran successful March.

The Houthis besides power the areas surrounding the strait, including the land of Hanish and the full Red Sea coastline of Yemen, reported Al Jazeera’s analogous successful Yemen, Yousef Mawry, connected Saturday. Houthi forces seized the port metropolis of Mocha connected Thursday.

(Al Jazeera)

Wolfgang Pusztai, a security, argumentation and defence analyst, said the Houthis’ beforehand and seizure of the full of Yemen’s Red Sea seashore means the radical present “has the existent capableness to unopen down immoderate maritime postulation done Bab al-Mandeb if they privation to”.

That gives the rebel radical a large vantage successful its conflict successful Yemen against Saudi-backed authorities forces, their superior target. It besides benefits the Houthis’ ally, Iran, successful its struggle with the US by giving Tehran caller leverage implicit different planetary chokepoint and making its ain blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “even much efficient”, Pusztai told Al Jazeera.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a probe chap astatine Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said the improvement serves some the Houthis’ “domestic” aims arsenic good arsenic Iran’s negotiating presumption with the US and the satellite “on different files, not conscionable Yemen”.

What does it mean for shipping successful the Bab al-Mandeb Strait?

The Houthis person said that wide shipping successful the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb is harmless from attacks, but for vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, which they volition blockade.

Houthi subject spokesperson Yahya Saree said the radical would proceed what his connection called a “siege for siege” and “escalation for escalation” strategy against Saudi Arabia, which has blockaded Houthi-held areas of Yemen.

However, the Houthis person antecedently targeted vessels with nary links to Saudi Arabia successful determination waters.

Between November 2023 and mid-2025, the Houthis attacked much than 100 commercialized ships successful the Red Sea. The Houthis said the attacks were against vessels linked to Israel oregon its allies, successful a run of solidarity with Palestinians successful Gaza. However, immoderate attacks targeted vessels that appeared to person nary specified links, according to shipping sources cited by Reuters and BBC Verify, the BBC’s fact-checking team.

If the Houthis again grow their targets beyond Saudi vessels, their caller positions could marque it easier for them to onslaught passing ships.

The Houthis would “be capable to usage shorter-range missiles alternatively than long-range artillery to onslaught the ships,” said Pusztai. “This makes it a precise risky endeavour to walk done the strait if the Houthis don’t let it.”

Any further disruption connected Red Sea shipping would person immense repercussions connected an already strained planetary vigor market, said economist Javed Hassan.

“War-risk security and charter rates tin emergence earlier cargoes are formally interrupted, and the resulting unit extends beyond lipid into instrumentality shipping, adust bulk and the wider outgo of traded goods,” Hassan told Al Jazeera. “The method proviso daze from Houthi attacks truthful becomes an inflationary daze done respective commodities astatine once.”

(Al Jazeera)

Can the Houthis clasp connected to the island?

That volition beryllium connected however overmuch effort Saudi-backed Yemeni authorities forces, which reportedly rapidly withdrew arsenic the Houthis precocious connected it, enactment into recapturing the island, said Andreas Krieg, subordinate prof astatine King’s College London.

The Houthis are successful a beardown presumption to clasp the land successful the abbreviated word owed to their power of surrounding areas, Krieg told Al Jazeera. However, “the land itself is hard to support against an amphibious battle successful the agelong run” though specified an battle “would beryllium a high-risk cognition arsenic well”.

“The cardinal volition beryllium to clasp the coastal areas of the mainland and its hinterland,” added Krieg.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a probe chap astatine the Middle East and North Africa programme astatine Chatham House, said the Houthis’ accelerated propulsion crossed the Red Sea seashore and onto Perim Island was not surprising.

He cited mediocre coordination and anemic armament among authorities forces, contempt a yearlong Saudi-backed effort to consolidate them into an effectual warring unit and an effectual years-long subject build-up by the Houthis.

Speaking to reporters during his sojourn to Ireland, US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had asked the US not to intervene in the struggle against Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

He said the Houthis “called us”. “They don’t privation to combat us, they fto america know,” Trump said.

“They ⁠⁠would overmuch similar not having america progressive and they’re letting astir ships spell through. There’s conscionable 1 state ‌‌that they’re not excessively blessed with and we’ll get that straightened out.”

Trump added that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is simply a “good friend” and “everything volition enactment retired fine”.