Iceland heads to the polls in knife-edge vote on restarting EU talks

Icelanders caput to the polls connected Saturday to determine whether their state should reenter negotiations to articulation the European Union, a ballot that could person economical and information implications beyond the tiny Arctic country.

The predetermination comes 13 years aft Iceland, nether a Eurosceptic government, paused the past EU accession talks, believing the state would fare amended extracurricular the bloc.

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But overmuch has changed since then.

Arctic information concerns person grown amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and United States President Donald Trump’s threats to invade neighbouring Greenland, the outgo of surviving has climbed and Iceland’s currency has kept wavering.

Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, whose Social Democrats party is pro-EU, said she volition honour immoderate prime the nationalist makes.

If Icelanders ballot “yes”, the state would apt commencement years of negotiations with Brussels to hammer retired rank terms. It would past clasp a 2nd referendum connected whether to formally go portion of the EU.

Frostadottir has said a “yes” ballot would spot the federation “enter negotiations with our heads held precocious and basal unneurotic successful seeking a bully agreement”.

If the effect is “no”, “all speculation astir what [EU membership] mightiness impact volition beryllium acceptable aside”, she said.

Knife-edge vote

Recent surveys amusement Icelanders are astir evenly divided connected the proposal.

A Gallup sentiment canvass conducted this week recovered that 51.6 percent of respondents were against caller EU rank talks, portion 48.4 percent favoured them.

An earlier survey by Icelandic pollster Maskina showed a constrictive bulk of 51.3 percent of respondents backing caller EU accession talks.

Gabriella Gricius, subordinate prof of strategy astatine the Norwegian Military Academy, said Iceland’s deficiency of equipped forces has ever near it “reliant connected NATO and specifically the US for its security”.

“As the US has grown much unpredictable, and specifically, its rhetoric astir Greenland has grown much concerning, it is not astonishing that Iceland is seeking further information guarantees done the EU,” Gricius told Al Jazeera.

Adam Fishwick, a lecturer successful planetary relations astatine the University of Iceland, said the expected benefits of rank would beryllium reduced inflation, a much unchangeable currency and less customs barriers for consumers.

“There whitethorn besides beryllium opportunities for determination improvement successful Iceland, which is an important contented here, with entree to dedicated EU funds,” helium told Al Jazeera.

However, the statement implicit EU accession remains “quite polarised”, helium noted. Opponents fearfulness the tiny federation of 395,000 radical would “lose power implicit mundane argumentation decisions” and person constricted sway successful a bloc filled with larger European powers, Fishwick said.

Voters to measurement interaction connected inflation, currency

The benefits of EU rank for Iceland are not arsenic evident arsenic for different imaginable candidates.

Iceland is simply a comparatively affluent state that, arsenic a subordinate of Schengen and the European Economic Area, already gets a batch of the single-market entree that would travel with EU membership.

However, the state has experienced increasing economical pains successful caller years, chiefly regarding the outgo of living. Consumer prices successful 2025 exceeded those of immoderate EU authorities and were 87 percent higher than the EU average.

Iceland’s currency, the krona, meanwhile, has been prone to exchange-rate swings that opponents accidental little concern assurance and marque it much costly to get money. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs concluded that the costs of maintaining Iceland’s ain currency astir apt outweigh the benefits. Adopting the euro, it said successful a report, whitethorn assistance trim involvement rates and transaction costs.

Joining the EU could assistance code some issues.

Iceland would go a portion of the bloc’s customs union, successful which goods determination freely betwixt members and look a communal tariff erstwhile imported from non-member countries. It could besides follow the much unchangeable euro arsenic its currency.

Fishing manufacture concerns: ‘Backbone of the economy’

A large concern, though, is the interaction connected the country’s sportfishing industry, an economical pillar that successful 2024 straight contributed astir 8 percent of gross home merchandise (GDP) and overmuch much indirectly.

By joining the EU, Iceland would go taxable to the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, which governs European sportfishing fleets and food stocks.

Iceland’s sportfishing manufacture fears this alteration could pb to caller drawback quotas, accrued overseas contention and, much broadly, little power implicit section sportfishing policy.

A sportfishing vessel battles unsmooth seas successful Grindavik, Iceland [File: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images]

“The cardinal objection to EU rank is that Iceland would not clasp afloat power implicit its fisheries – the accepted backbone of the economy,” Valur Ingimundarson, prof of modern past astatine the University of Iceland, told Al Jazeera.

Even if Icelanders ballot “yes” to proceed with EU negotiations, the state is improbable to spell guardant with EU rank unless it secures “ironclad” exemptions regarding its sportfishing industry, said Ingimundarson.

‘Additional information guarantees’

Mounting information pressures successful the Arctic, coupled with uncertainty about US committedness to its accepted European partners, are besides contributing to Iceland’s renewed involvement successful the EU, accidental analysts.

Though Iceland is simply a founding subordinate of NATO and has a 75-year defence pact with the US, it has nary lasting equipped forces of its ain and is located successful a geopolitical hotspot that some Russia and the US person sought to task powerfulness in.

While Russia has expanded its subject beingness successful the Arctic successful caller years, President Trump has repeatedly threatened to usage force to prehend adjacent Greenland.

Ingimundarson said pro-EU Icelanders spot “the EU arsenic a root of governmental and economical extortion for a tiny authorities confronted by coercive great-power authorities and uncertainty astir the US arsenic a reliable information partner”.

Iceland’s Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir has said rank would beryllium “a invaluable addition” for Iceland, adjacent though NATO and the US would inactive beryllium its halfway information partners.

In comments to Reuters, Gunnarsdottir said Iceland has been “disappointed” with the US’s “pressure run waged against some Greenlanders and Denmark”.

Russia poses a information menace “in our waters and nearby, successful the North Atlantic”, said Gunnarsdottir.

For the EU, bringing Iceland into its orbit would grow EU territory overmuch deeper into the North Atlantic, perchance deepening its strategical absorption there, said Gricius, the professor.

“Icelandic rank successful the EU wouldn’t needfully alteration Arctic information dynamics, arsenic Iceland is and volition proceed to beryllium an Arctic state,” she said. “However, it whitethorn power however the EU behaves successful the Arctic, arsenic the EU would past see 4 of the 8 Arctic states – Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Denmark.”