How US-Iran war may push Gulf countries to ‘diversify’ security alliances

Gulf countries are apt to accelerate the propulsion to diversify their information partnerships aft the United States-Israel warfare connected Iran, analysts say, arsenic the portion grapples with the lasting interaction of the conflict.

As Tehran and Washington hold talks towards a lasting agreement, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – which came nether Iranian onslaught during the warfare – are expanding their relationships amid the uncertainty.

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Even earlier the war, Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, an confederation that could grow to different countries successful the region.

For years, Gulf states person been buying defence systems from immoderate European countries, portion maintaining affable relations with Russia and China – an attack that volition apt beryllium cemented by the conflict, experts say.

Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident chap astatine the Arab Gulf States Institute, stressed that seeking caller information partners is not aimed astatine replacing the US.

“The absorption for countries similar Saudi Arabia is the determination equilibrium of powerfulness and pushing backmost connected some Iran and Israel,” Jacobs Khalaf told Al Jazeera.

“This doesn’t mean replacing the US with Pakistan; it means diversifying partnerships and mounting up platforms similar the alleged quad radical of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan. It besides means processing their ain home antiaircraft capabilities and processing much determination autonomy.”

Iranian attacks

Since the warfare broke retired connected February 28, Iranian attacks person targeted subject bases hosting US troops arsenic good arsenic immoderate civilian sites, including airports, vigor facilities and hotels successful immoderate Gulf countries.

Even aft Tehran and Washington reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to extremity the warfare earlier this month, the Iranian subject – spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – launched missiles and drones astatine targets successful Bahrain and Kuwait successful skirmishes with the US.

Besides Iran, galore Gulf countries presumption Israel’s expansionist policies and subject campaigns arsenic a menace arsenic well, analysts say.

Last year, Israel bombed the Qatari superior Doha successful an effort to termination Hamas leaders during US-backed Gaza ceasefire mediations.

President Donald Trump said helium was “very unhappy” with the strikes connected Qatar – a large non-NATO state of the US – and denied approving oregon having anterior cognition of the attack.

Jacobs Khalaf said the determination by the US and Israel to onslaught Iran and Tehran’s retaliation against the Arabian Peninsula, which saw Iranian forces unopen down the Strait of Hormuz, created an “unprecedented information crisis” for GCC members.

“The US and Israeli warfare connected Iran and its hugely antagonistic interaction connected Gulf states has convinced immoderate determination capitals that they privation to displacement distant from a US-centric information architecture,” she told Al Jazeera.

“The Iran warfare is making immoderate Gulf states question the worth of the US arsenic a information guarantor.”

Annelle Sheline, a probe chap astatine the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, besides said that GCC countries volition apt look to “diversify” their information alliances and deepen ties with China, Turkiye and Europe.

“I fishy that the Gulf volition privation to support its information narration with the United States, but that it volition nary longer privation to beryllium successful a presumption wherever it is relying connected the United States,” Sheline told Al Jazeera.

She added that US forces successful the portion not lone proved “unreliable” successful preventing Iran’s attacks, but “actually, the beingness of the US subject successful Gulf countries had the other of a deterrent effect. These subject bases became targets,” Sheline said.

Mending ties with Iran

Despite the choler implicit the Iranian attacks, Gulf countries person kept lines of connection unfastened with Tehran, adjacent astatine the information level.

Several GCC countries are moving to mend ties and deepen economical relations with their neighbour crossed the Gulf.

Investments whitethorn beryllium a much effectual deterrent than weapons, immoderate experts suggest.

If Gulf and Iranian economical interests are intertwined, Tehran would deliberation doubly earlier striking the region, Sheline explained.

“Gulf states are apt to effort a antithetic approach, whereby they effort to marque it much costly for Iran to onslaught them successful the aboriginal by tying themselves much intimately to Iran, specified arsenic done energy infrastructure,” she said.

US Vice President JD Vance alluded to that strategy successful a caller interrogation with UnHerd, underscoring that Gulf countries person welcomed the MoU betwixt Washington and Tehran.

“The Emiratis — by acold the astir hawkish, by acold the astir pro-Israel state successful the [Gulf Cooperation Council] — they’re having conversations with the Iranians that person ne'er happened before, including with the IRGC, astir assorted types of economical incentives — ‘Here’s what we’d request to spot to marque your state investable’ — and the Iranians travel backmost and say, ‘OK, yeah, we’re consenting to bash each those things’,” Vance said past week.

US-Israel calculations

The US itself appears to beryllium astatine a crossroads with its posture successful the region.

Last year, Trump’s National Security Strategy emphasised that Washington nary longer views the Middle East arsenic a geopolitical priority, arguing that overseas argumentation resources indispensable displacement distant from the portion to much pressing areas – namely the Western Hemisphere.

At the aforesaid time, the US has a longstanding governmental and information committedness to Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to abide by the MoU’s demands for a determination ceasefire, including successful Lebanon.

Almost arsenic soon arsenic the MoU was signed, Israel’s allies successful Washington, DC, mobilised against diplomacy and stressed the request to let Israel to proceed its subject campaigns successful Lebanon and crossed the region.

Trump’s squad pushed backmost against immoderate of the criticism.

“The Israelis and the United States, we person a batch of shared interests, but we besides person immoderate situations wherever our interests diverge,” Vance told Fox News earlier this month.

Nonetheless, the Trump medication has backed a separate agreement betwixt Lebanon and Israel that practically gives Israel state of enactment successful Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms, which appears to beryllium astatine likelihood with the archetypal enactment of the MoU’s telephone for a ceasefire.

Some of Netanyahu’s right-wing allies person openly opposed the MoU. However, the Israeli premier curate has struck a equilibrium betwixt repeatedly thanking Trump for the warfare with Iran. portion besides stressing that Israel volition proceed to prosecute its ain policies successful Lebanon and beyond.

Sheline said if the ceasefire woody leads to a broad statement with Iran, the US whitethorn yet beryllium capable to measurement distant from the Middle East, but Israel whitethorn enactment arsenic a spoiler to support tensions going and propulsion the US backmost into warring successful the region.

“The large question people is Israel,” she said.

Sheline added that if the US pressures Israel to forestall the Netanyahu authorities from torpedoing the deal, Washington could instrumentality a measurement backmost and let “regional countries to instrumentality greater work for their ain information successful a mode that is overmuch much sustainable”.

For the Gulf, Israel’s militarism has been seen progressively arsenic a menace to the full Middle East, particularly aft the 2025 Doha onslaught and the warfare with Iran.

“Many Gulf states consciousness precise threatened by Israel’s progressively assertive posture successful the region,” said Jacobs Khalaf.

“Israel’s destruction successful Gaza since October 7, its entrenching and expanding concern of Palestinian lands and its attacks connected some Lebanon and Syrian territory are hugely threatening and unacceptable to each the Gulf states, adjacent those that person normalised relations with Israel.”