How are Western sanctions affecting Syria’s post-Assad transition?

A wide array of Western sanctions are debilitating Syria’s system and threatening its betterment aft 14 years of civilian war.

The United States and European Union some imposed sanctions against erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad and his authorities for committing crimes during the war, which began aft pro-democracy protesters were repressed successful 2011.

While al-Assad is present gone, the sanctions stay successful place, including connected Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main radical that overthrew al-Assad and is present starring Syria’s transition.

Some European officials recently said they would not assistance sanctions until Syria’s caller rulers demonstrate that they volition support minorities and stock power.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock travelled to Syria with her French counterpart connected January 3. She said their ngo was “to sermon whether specified an inclusive governmental process is imaginable and whether quality rights tin genuinely beryllium guaranteed”.

“The full question of lifting sanctions is tied to this,” she said.

Western sanctions were portion of an effort to unit al-Assad to alteration his actions, and Western policymakers reason that they volition beryllium indispensable to bash the aforesaid with the caller administration. But galore Syrians judge that the sanctions endanger to doom Syria’s governmental modulation arsenic it struggles to retrieve from years of demolition and isolation.

This is each you request to cognize astir Western sanctions and however they impact Syria.

How galore times has Syria been sanctioned?

In 1979, the US designated Syria arsenic a authorities sponsor of “terrorism” portion al-Assad’s father, Hafez, was successful power. The authorities was deed with further targeted sanctions successful 2004 for its prolonged concern successful Lebanon and for what Washington termed its enactment of “terrorism”.

Shortly aft wide protests erupted against Bashar al-Assad successful 2011, the US and EU imposed targeted sanctions against a fistful of authorities officials successful effect to the brutal repression of the opposition.

The US and EU applied much sprawling sanctions arsenic Syria slid deeper into turmoil, hitting the cardinal slope and energy and vigor sectors.

A damaged representation depicting precocious Syrian President Hafez al-Assad is seen connected a model of the constabulary office successful Homs, Syria, Thursday, December 26, 2024 [File: Leo Correa/AP Photo]

These sanctions prevented the authorities from buying oregon trading wealth to stabilise its currency, keeping the lights connected successful overmuch of the state and importing astir immoderate signifier of technology.

The US past passed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act successful 2019, which efficaciously banned states and backstage businesses from doing concern with al-Assad’s government.

In addition, the US, EU and the United Nations Security Council person designated HTS a “terrorist” radical owed to its erstwhile links to al-Qaeda, which proceed to marque Western powers tense astir lifting sanctions.

Do these sanctions inactive apply?

They do.

The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and HTS’s “terrorist” designation are the astir debilitating, according to Jerome Drevon, an adept connected Syria with the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The former, helium said, indirectly impacted each layers of Syria’s system by efficaciously stopping the state from exporting oregon importing goods and earthy materials.

The “terrorist” designation connected HTS has a akin effect, helium told Al Jazeera.

“Any transaction oregon concern successful the state linked to the authorities [of HTS] … tin beryllium seen done the lens of supporting terrorism,” explained Drevon.

Do the sanctions harm assistance operations?

Very much.

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the US and the EU person issued a fig of exemptions successful bid to prolong alleviation operations, yet sanctions inactive person a profound interaction connected assistance groups.

Aid groups often person to navigate costly bureaucratic hurdles to guarantee banks and exporters are not violating US oregon EU sanctions, which transportation steep fines and the hazard of jailhouse terms.

These obstacles often pb to prolonged delays of assistance deliveries wrong Syria. Even worse, the perceived hazard of violating sanctions  – adjacent if determination is an exemption – has a chilling effect that acutely limits the assistance response.

Many banks and backstage companies similar not to cooperate with assistance agencies adjacent erstwhile they are reassured they won’t beryllium violating US and EU sanctions, said HRW.

“Primate parties and fiscal institutions often debar dealing, straight oregon indirectly, with Syrian individuals oregon entities adjacent successful non-sanctioned sectors,” HRW wrote successful a study published past year.

Should sanctions beryllium removed?

The caller Syrian medication has urged the US and others to assistance sanctions, saying that the determination would beryllium captious to allowing Syria to rebuild itself.

Drevon argued that astir of the sanctions should beryllium removed.

He told Al Jazeera that the immense bulk of the sanctions Syria is inheriting contiguous were imposed to punish the al-Assad regime.

Those sanctions should beryllium lifted, helium said, present that the authorities is gone.

The sanctions hazard isolating Syria and forcing much civilians to prime up arms and pat into the illicit system if viable alternatives are not available, warned Drevon.

“Sanctions endanger the destabilisation of the state successful the mid-term,” helium told Al Jazeera. “And, indeed, we person to ideate to what grade equipped groups could popular up successful antithetic areas of the state and get progressive successful smuggling and the achromatic marketplace to marque a surviving retired of it.”

Is it excessively precocious to assistance sanctions?

The abbreviated reply is no.

The US has made a determination to contented waivers to let assistance groups and backstage entities to enactment astir the sanctions and standard up alleviation efforts successful the country, according to the Wall Street Journal.

An advocator who did not privation to beryllium named told Al Jazeera that based connected conversations held with members of the US administration, the suspension of sanctions would beryllium “broad” and efficaciously licence nonstop transactions with the existent authorities.

Drevon, from ICG, believes the suspension of sanctions would besides efficaciously alteration a fig of concern transactions to beryllium conducted with the government.

The suspension volition past for astir six months, and past the incoming medication of US President-elect Donald Trump volition determine whether oregon not to support oregon assistance sanctions connected Syria.

Drevon said the US determination is simply a bully archetypal step, yet much needs to beryllium done to stabilise Syria passim its delicate transition.

“You tin suspend sanctions, but it won’t needfully incentivise the backstage assemblage to invest,” Drevon told Al Jazeera.“To what grade tin anyone marque semipermanent investments if cipher knows whether the suspension volition past a agelong time?”