Heather Exner-Pirot: This would be the absolute worst time for export taxes

An oil well in a field seen along Highway 22, known as the Cowboy Trail, between Cochrane and Cremona, in Alberta, Canada on May 22, 2025. Photo by Artur Widak /NurPhoto via Getty Images

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I love Canadian oil and gas. And potash and canola, copper and nickel, and pretty much all of our resources. I love them because I see them as tools to achieve the things that matter to Canada and Canadians: jobs, revenues, foreign investment and infrastructure, of course. But also influence and soft power. Means by which we can make new trading partners, be useful to our allies, and mitigate the ability of our adversaries to weaponize energy, minerals and food.

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President Trump has done the service of making other Canadians see our energy and resources in the same light. We now collectively recognize it as a source of power and leverage, our front foot in an increasingly turbulent and fraught world. This comes just in time for a commodity cycle upswing, the generational ebb and flow of commodity prices, when we will be able to realize great value from our resource endowment.

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It is therefore a cruel twist of fate that my fellow Canadians’ inclination for belatedly exercising this power is by taxing and restricting the sales of these resources to our biggest customer. I think this fundamentally misunderstands the value of our resources for Canadians, and it is past time to think about it in a more sophisticated way.

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Commodities are raw materials, generally energy, mineral or agricultural products. They are basic, interchangeable items that global buyers choose based on the lowest price. Because transportation comprises a big portion of the cost, proximity to buyers is useful.

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Canada has been fortunate to be very close to the large American market, and the U.S. has been fortunate to be close to a significant resource producer. This mutually beneficial trade has underpinned North America’s competitiveness and stability for two centuries.

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Trump has come along and disrupted this, to the detriment of both countries. But while many sectors are feeling economic pain, Trump’s actions at home and abroad have also been beneficial for Canada. Over half of our exports are commodities, and just about everything has seen a meaningful price increase since Trump came into office.

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Oil is up because the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted; gold is up due to geopolitical fears and loss of confidence in the American dollar. Those are Canada’s top two exports, and without producing another barrel or ounce, their price increases would have led Canada’s trade balance into surplus.

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But because of those high prices, we will be producing many more barrels and ounces. We’ve attracted more investment to build mines and pipelines and grow production, and have diversified the customers wanting to buy those goods.

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While gold and oil are our biggest commodities by revenue, this same story is playing out in copper, potash, nickel, uranium, aluminum and more. The Toronto Stock Exchange has seen world leading gains because it is heavily weighted towards mining and energy stocks. Canada has seen a significant uptick in major projects proposed and financed. We are building more ports, LNG terminals, dams, gas plants, and transmission lines because there is growing demand for these things.