Hasina spat stalls Bangladesh-India reset. What would break the deadlock?

Dhaka, Bangladesh — New Delhi and Dhaka had been softly readying Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s archetypal sojourn to India since taking bureau earlier this year, erstwhile a quality league shattered those efforts.

Former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, convicted of crimes against humanity successful her country, addressed a quality league held successful the bosom of the Indian superior by video connected August 5, wherever she, her lad and different enactment colleagues criticised the wide uprising that had brought her down.

Bangladesh responded swiftly, saying that it was “outraged” that Hasina had been allowed to talk publically from Indian soil, wherever she has been successful exile since her ouster successful August 2024. Dhaka had specifically warned New Delhi against allowing governmental activities that could impact bilateral relations.

Bangladesh subsequently said a “propitious environment” was needed earlier the trip, portion asking New Delhi to enactment connected extradition requests involving Hasina and different fugitives.

India says the requests stay “under examination” done established procedures.

But interviews with Bangladeshi officials and analysts suggest the contiguous quality whitethorn beryllium much nuanced than a elemental extradition standoff.

The cardinal question whitethorn beryllium little erstwhile India hands Hasina implicit than what India allows her to bash portion she remains there.

The ‘megaphone’ problem

Faisal Mahmud, a erstwhile property curate astatine the Bangladesh High Commission successful New Delhi, said extradition and Hasina’s governmental activities should beryllium treated arsenic abstracted issues.

“The stalemate betwixt Bangladesh and India stems mostly from New Delhi giving Sheikh Hasina a literal megaphone portion she remains successful exile determination – thing Dhaka had specifically asked India not to allow,” Mahmud told Al Jazeera.

Extradition, helium said, was “an wholly antithetic matter, and a acold much analyzable and lengthy one” that the Rahman authorities understood.

“At this point, the impasse implicit [Bangladesh PM] Tarique’s projected sojourn to India, and implicit immoderate broader reset of the frosty bilateral relationship, is not centred connected Hasina’s extradition,” Mahmud said. “It is centred connected India allowing her to behaviour governmental activities from its soil.”

That interest predates the authorities nether Rahman’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

During an April 4, 2025 gathering with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, past caput of Bangladesh’s interim administration, asked New Delhi to forestall Hasina from making what helium described arsenic “incendiary statements” from Indian soil.

Humaiun Kobir, lawman caput of Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry, told Al Jazeera that Dhaka wanted “a bully and moving narration with India based connected spot and communal respect”.

“But letting terrorists similar Sheikh Hasina destabilise our state from India is not acceptable,” Kobir said, utilizing the government’s statement of the erstwhile premier minister.

He argued that relations could participate “a caller phase” if the enactment of some countries wanted it, but said New Delhi indispensable recognise Bangladesh’s changed governmental world pursuing the 2024 uprising.

“No 1 tin behaviour immoderate panic enactment from a sovereign land,” Kobir said. “It is unacceptable that the terrorists who killed our radical are allowed to speech from their onshore and incite unit successful Bangladesh.”

He besides said Dhaka wanted India to instrumentality different Bangladeshis accused of crimes, including suspects successful the sidesplitting of Sharif Osman Hadi, an outspoken professional of some Hasina and India who was murdered successful 2025. His alleged killers were subsequently arrested by India, wherever they had crossed over.

Yet Kobir’s comments besides suggest Dhaka does not privation the Hasina quality to indefinitely forestall high-level engagement.

Talks implicit Rahman’s sojourn stay nether way, helium said, describing a gathering betwixt the Bangladeshi and Indian premier ministers arsenic yet unavoidable. Over the weekend, successful fact, India’s Rashtrapati Bhavan — the statesmanlike palace — issued a announcement suggesting that it was preparing to big Rahman, lone to retreat that papers hours later.

“A gathering is simply a must,” Kobir told Al Jazeera. “But lone erstwhile it aligns with our nationalist interest.”

“It tin beryllium adjacent week, 2 weeks aboriginal oregon 2 months later,” helium added.

Will India extradite Hasina?

That favoritism matters due to the fact that restricting Hasina’s governmental enactment and extraditing her contiguous precise antithetic challenges for New Delhi.

Hasina was sentenced to decease successful absentia by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal aft being convicted of crimes against humanity implicit the deadly crackdown connected the 2024 uprising. She rejects the proceedings arsenic politically motivated.

Bangladesh archetypal formally sought Hasina’s extradition connected December 23, 2024, done a diplomatic enactment sent nether the countries’ 2013 extradition treaty.

After her decease condemnation successful November 2025, Dhaka reiterated the request, and India subsequently said it was “under examination”.

On August 11, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said Bangladesh’s petition for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition was being examined nether India’s “established procedures”, adding that New Delhi would stock an update erstwhile determination was further progress.

India’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to Al Jazeera’s petition for further details connected the matter.

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a erstwhile Indian precocious commissioner to Bangladesh, said the substance indispensable proceed done pact provisions and India’s ineligible system.

“All ineligible formalities person to beryllium completed for obtaining a judicial bid for extradition,” Chakravarty told Al Jazeera.

He said the pact besides contained grounds nether which extradition could beryllium refused.

Domestic authorities shapes diplomacy

Some analysts spot a governmental contradiction successful the extradition demand.

David Bergman, a seasoned perceiver of Bangladesh politics, argues that Dhaka is pressing India to instrumentality Hasina portion perchance preferring that she stay extracurricular the country.

“Bangladesh demands extradition knowing that the Indian authorities volition ne'er extradite Hasina,” Bergman told Al Jazeera, adding: “It is seemingly playing to the assemblage of Bangladesh nationalist opinion.”

“At the aforesaid time, the authorities does not really privation Hasina to return,” Bergman said, referring to a dilemma that different analysts excessively person pointed to: Hasina’s instrumentality could make arsenic galore governmental and ineligible problems for Dhaka arsenic it resolves.

Bangladesh would person custody of a erstwhile premier curate sentenced to death, forcing the authorities to face the politically and internationally delicate consequences of imprisoning, and perchance executing, 1 of the country’s astir consequential governmental figures.

But the Hasina question is lone 1 portion of a broader recalibration of Dhaka’s narration with New Delhi.

Shahab Enam Khan, prof of planetary relations astatine Jahangirnagar University, said Dhaka’s existent posture should not beryllium work simply arsenic anti-India. Khan told Al Jazeera that Bangladesh inactive needs trade, defence, information and people-to-people ties with India.

He said the government’s stance reflects 2 pressures: asserting Bangladesh’s ineligible and sovereign authority, and responding to nationalist sentiment shaped by what helium described arsenic New Delhi’s adjacent alignment with Hasina’s Awami League implicit the past 2 decades.

Khan argued that India had invested heavy successful the Awami League arsenic its main governmental spouse successful Bangladesh and had been dilatory to afloat set to the country’s post-2024 governmental reality.

He said New Delhi was present “increasingly embracing the governmental world successful Bangladesh”, but added that Dhaka needed to spot that displacement translated into factual outcomes.

Neither broadside wants a rupture

The governmental quality has not halted applicable engagement.

A Confederation of Indian Industry delegation visited Dhaka this period for talks with ministers and concern leaders adjacent arsenic uncertainty implicit Rahman’s projected India sojourn intensified. Bilateral merchandise commercialized remains supra $12bn annually, with India exporting $10.56bn worthy of goods to Bangladesh, according to the Indian High Commission successful Dhaka.

For erstwhile Indian High Commissioner Chakravarty, that reflects an unavoidable structural reality.

“Geography is an immutable origin successful geopolitics,” helium told Al Jazeera. “It binds India and Bangladesh successful a mode that cannot beryllium ignored by policymakers successful some countries.”

But helium criticised Dhaka for attaching conditions to Rahman’s visit.

“I bash not deliberation that the larger nationalist involvement and bilateral ties should beryllium held hostage to immoderate individual,” Chakravarty said.

Sreeradha Datta, a prof specialising successful South Asian studies astatine India’s O P Jindal Global University, pointed to different magnitude of that interdependence: Bangladesh’s attempts to diversify its outer relationships person not reduced India’s strategical importance.

She said Dhaka’s expanding engagement with the United States and China, increasing defence practice with Turkiye and renewed outreach to Pakistan person added to New Delhi’s concerns astir Bangladesh’s overseas argumentation direction.

China has go peculiarly important, Datta said, with Beijing’s sustained economical and strategical engagement giving it a increasing relation successful Bangladesh’s improvement and overseas argumentation calculations.

Even so, she argued, Bangladesh’s broader outer partnerships cannot diminish India’s structural importance.

“Neither broadside tin enactment disengaged for long,” Datta told Al Jazeera, noting that geography ensures India volition stay strategically important to Bangladesh.

The 2 countries stock a 4,096km (2,546-mile) onshore border.

Datta said Bangladesh besides occupies a captious spot successful India’s eastbound connectivity, information and neighbourhood strategy, adding that the narration is supported by much than 70 bilateral mechanisms.

That structural dependence besides helps explicate why, contempt the governmental standoff, New Delhi has stopped abbreviated of closing the doorway connected high-level engagement.

As precocious arsenic August 18, India’s Foreign Ministry said Rahman’s invitation remained open, portion reiterating that New Delhi wants a “positive, constructive and forward-looking” narration with Bangladesh based connected communal involvement and reciprocity.

The unresolved question is what concession, nationalist oregon private, could make capable governmental abstraction for some governments to determination towards a gathering without appearing to person backed down.