Has National Championship picture in college football already changed after a stunning first week?

Week one of the 2026 college football season isn't fully in the books, and already the playoff and National Championship picture has already been turned upside down. And the balance of power within the two top conferences might have shifted, unexpectedly, after some shocking performances, both good and bad.

While the Indiana Hoosiers are defending national champions, finished off a 16-0 season, and brought in another impressive transfer portal class under Curt Cignetti, most have expected that the Big Ten Championship will run through two other programs: the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks.

Ohio State lived up to the billing, with an overwhelmingly dominant win over Ball State. Far from a top opponent, sure, but the Buckeyes did exactly what they needed to as the country's number one team in their opening game. Oregon though? Not exactly.

OREGON RALLIES FROM SLOW START, THWARTS BOISE STATE'S UPSET BID IN SEASON OPENER

Oregon’s Davon Benjamin and Brandon Finney Jr. celebrate after a play during a college football game against Boise State at Autzen Stadium on Sept. 5, 2026, in Eugene, Oregon. (Al Sermeno/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

The Ducks struggled for most of the first half against Boise State, then found themselves tied with just over eight minutes to go in the game after a Broncos field goal. But after a quick touchdown drive to take a 34-27 lead, the Oregon defense stiffened, and closed out the win with back-to-back stops. That said, the Ducks dominated more than the scoreline indicated. They averaged nearly eight yards per play, allowing just 4.2 to Boise State. They had 10 yards per attempt passing, with 28 completions on 38 attempts for 378 yards, while adding three sacks and four tackles for loss on defense. The scoreline was close, but Ducks fans can be encouraged that they "deserved" a more decisive outcome.

Then there's the "second tier" of the Big Ten, teams that have hoped coaching staff changes and another year of development for start quarterbacks will make the difference: Michigan and USC. SC brought in defensive coordinator Gary Patterson to finally make the Trojans defensive unit championship quality. Michigan, after a year of turmoil after the firing of Sherrone Moore, hired Kyle Whittingham away from Utah, a head coach known for his consistency and steadiness.

Their outcomes on Saturday couldn't have been more different.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 05: Dom Nichols #8 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts after a first half tackle against the Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Stadium on September 05, 2026 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Nobody who watched Michigan, outside fans of the program, thinks they escaped Western Michigan with a last-second win. They were outplayed, couldn't get the Broncos offense off the field, frequently benefited from questionable officiating, then required a miraculous Hail Mary, that should never have happened, to escape with the win. Even including that 47-yard pass, the Wolverines had just 276 yards of offense. At home. Against Western Michigan as a 28-point favorite.

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They averaged 5.8 yards per play, again, with that 47-yard pass included. Bryce Underwood, making an enormous amount of money after a high-profile recruiting war, looked awful. Excluding the Hail Mary, Underwood had 11 completions on 21 pass attempts for 123 yards. Against Western Michigan, at home. The Michigan running game, long a point of pride in Ann Arbor, had 16 attempts from its running backs, for 59 yards. At home. Against Western Michigan. Broncos running back Jalen Buckley had 19 carries for 62 yards. By himself.

A sloppy early season performance isn't enough to fully end a team's season, just ask Notre Dame in 2024, who lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois, then played in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. But with most observers treating Michigan's performance as a loss, and a tough schedule with Oklahoma next weekend, games against Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, it's hard to see the Wolverines as a realistic contender for a playoff spot.

USC though? Their defense finally put in the type of performance fans have been waiting for.

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Fresno State isn't Oregon, of course, but the Bulldogs were expected to be one of the better Group of Six teams. They finished 2025 at 9-4, beat Boise State 30-7 and Oregon State 36-27. Many believed they could compete near the top of the newly reconfigured Pac-12 Conference, with analyst Greg McIlroy picking them as the G6 playoff representative.

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But the Trojans ran them off the field. SC were 21-point favorites, then outgained the Bulldogs 552-116. They averaged 8.1 yards per play, while allowing just 2.6. Most of Fresno's offensive stats came from the last drive of the game against the SC backups. Midway through the fourth quarter, the Trojans defense had allowed just over 50 total yards on offense and 1.7 yards per play. Fresno State isn't an FCS team. They were No. 73 in preseason SP+, one of the best analytics-driven ranking systems available. That's ahead of teams like Stanford and USF, and not far off from Colorado and Iowa State.

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USC has a tough road ahead too, with games against Oregon, Washington, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State ahead, but if the Trojans defense is for real, they might suddenly be, finally, "back."

LSU HAD A REVIVAL, CLEMSON WAS AT A FUNERAL: LANE KIFFIN’S DEBUT SENDS A LOUD MESSAGE TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL

LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt scrambles against Clemson Tigers during the second half at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., on Sept. 5, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

No question though, the most impressive of the weekend had to be the LSU Tigers. Despite the controversy surrounding the program, Lane Kiffin's debut couldn't have been better. LSU obliterated Clemson, who were hopeless offensively, and barely able to provide opposition defensively. The Tigers treated the other Tigers like an FCS team, and immediately cemented themselves as top contenders in the SEC, along with Texas and Georgia.

Nothing's decided in week one, but we did, already, see the playoff picture get a shakeup. LSU and USC might be better than expected, with both providing more competition for Ohio State and Georgia than many believed heading into the season.

Oregon, while they clearly "deserved" the win, seem a bit further away from championship quality than many projected based on the talent Dan Lanning's accumulated. And Michigan, well, if poll voters were honest about what everyone saw, they deserve to fall out of the top-25 entirely.