Hanes: With referendum talk in Quebec and Alberta, Canada could be in for a divisive October

The R-word has returned with a vengeance — and it’s not going away any time soon.

During an in-depth interview with radio host Paul Arcand last week, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has been leading in the polls, reiterated his unwavering commitment to holding a referendum on sovereignty in a first mandate if he wins the Oct. 5 election.

Grassroots groups in Alberta secured enough signatures earlier this month to have a question on separating from Canada put on the ballot of a referendum on other matters already scheduled for Oct. 19.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith hasn’t seized on opportunities to hit the brakes on an independence referendum. To his credit, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has always been transparent about his intent to hold a sovereignty vote should the PQ win the October election. Pierre Obendrauf, left, John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette

So hold on to your hats. October could be a pivotal month for the future of this country, even if a majority of voters in both provinces have repeatedly told pollsters they don’t want a referendum, want to remain in Canada and are strongly attached to the True North strong and free — especially as U.S. President Donald Trump muses about making us the 51st state.

Paradoxical though it is, no one should take anything for granted as separatists in both provinces forge ahead in spite of economic turbulence and geopolitical turmoil.

Perhaps this seems like déjà vu to Quebecers, who lived through referendums in 1980 and 1995. But there has never been a parallel independence movement campaigning elsewhere in Canada at the same time.

The extent to which these forces could fuel and reinforce each other is hard to predict, but St-Pierre Plamondon has expressed his support for an Alberta independence referendum, lauded Premier Danielle Smith’s quest for more autonomy, and told an audience at the University of Calgary last fall he hopes to find areas of co-operation.

The last two referendums on Quebec sovereignty also didn’t take place at a time when foreign entities are eager to exploit Canada’s divisions, be they Russian propaganda mills or MAGA influencers.

Already, Canadian researchers have detected an upswing in misinformation and disinformation related to the separatism debate in Alberta. Much of it originated with foreign content farms and is being pushed on social media to undermine Canada’s national interests.

That isn’t the only sign it’s not 1995 anymore.

Alberta’s voter list was compromised by one of the groups backing separation in the province when it was posted to an app and potentially consulted by thousands. Elections Alberta was slow to investigate this major privacy breach, which exposed the personal information of nearly three million Albertans. There are grave concerns this could give rise to political intimidation or result in fraud.

With investigations by elections officials, the province’s privacy commissioner and the RCMP, the integrity of any future referendum is already at stake.

In the meantime, the courts sided with two Indigenous groups that mounted a legal challenge to block a referendum in Alberta on the grounds it would violate their treaty rights. A judge agreed last week that First Nations should have been consulted and overturned the certification of the petition calling for a separation question on the ballot.

Smith announced the government will appeal the ruling, which she called “undemocratic” (as will the group behind the petition).

Back in Quebec, St-Pierre Plamondon threw a curveball of his own, saying he thinks the RCMP may be spying on him. He has no proof, but the death this month of René Lévesque-era cabinet minister Claude Morin was a reminder informants have been recruited in the past.

The PQ leader said he and his party take no chances, forbidding smartphones in crucial strategy sessions or putting them in special cases to prevent electronic surveillance.

The comments drew skepticism from some of St-Pierre Plamondon’s colleagues in the National Assembly. Coalition Avenir Québec Domestic Security Minister Ian Lafrenière, a former cop, expressed doubt, as did pro-independence Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal. But CAQ Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette said he thinks the concerns are legit.

The mention of spying seemed intended to stoke suspicion and portray the federalist side as underhanded, picking at old wounds.

From the sponsorship scandal in which public funds were funnelled into promoting national unity in Quebec, to recent assertions the federal Immigration Department was fast-tracking citizenship approvals to boost the number of No voters in 1995, there is plenty of lingering resentment.

Then, of course, there’s the Clarity Act, which the federal government adopted to set the bar high for a province to secede after Quebec came within a sliver of leaving in 1995. It requires a clear question and a clear majority in favour.

Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said the Clarity Act will be applied if Alberta ever votes to separate. But he dodged the question when asked whether a simple majority would suffice for Quebec to leave.

For good measure, St-Pierre Plamondon tabled a motion in the National Assembly last week reaffirming a vote of 50 per cent plus one would be enough to separate from Canada. It was adopted unanimously by those MNAs present, since it basically reiterated the thrust of Bill 99, passed in 2000 as an antidote to the Clarity Act. St-Pierre Plamondon then urged Alberta to draft its own version of Bill 99.

So already there are signs the Quebec and Alberta separatist camps are finding common ground.

But Ottawa has been largely MIA in advocating for national unity.

Carney’s attempt to make overtures to Quebecers in a landmark speech last winter sparked controversy over his rather rosy take on history. Perhaps silence is golden, since his approval ratings are soaring in Quebec.

In Alberta, Carney is focused on addressing some of the province’s economic grievances with plans to build a new pipeline and a fresh deal on carbon pricing. Maybe he’s banking on results swaying more minds than rhetoric.

But as separatist forces gear up in the oil-rich province, there’s a leadership vacuum on the federalist side, former Alberta premier Jason Kenney lamented.

Someone better step up, since it doesn’t seem the current Alberta premier is doing much to counter the independence movement.

Smith says she believes in “a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” — whatever that means. But she lowered the bar for collecting signatures to get a separation question on the referendum ballot and is appealing the ruling won by Indigenous groups quashing the petition certification.

Smith certainly hasn’t seized on opportunities — like the misuse of the voter list or the court decision — to hit the brakes on a referendum.

These actions give credence to fears she is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

There are some separatist sympathies within her United Conservative Party. Now, one of the main pro-independence groups is urging its followers to buy UCP memberships to pressure Smith to use her powers to put their question on the ballot if the petition process fails.

At least there is no doubt in Quebec who is leading the Yes side and how a referendum would be triggered.

To his credit, St-Pierre Plamondon has always been transparent and unequivocal about his intent to hold a sovereignty vote should the PQ win — even if being vague would make it easier for him to get elected.

A referendum in Quebec is still a big if, as the latest polls show the race tightening between St-Pierre Plamondon, Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard and CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette.

It’s not a done deal in Alberta, either.

But as we hurtle toward October, even those who want no part of a referendum had better get ready to hear the R-word like never before.

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