GOLDSTEIN: U.S., not EU, the priority on trade

Reaching a deal with southern neighbours will provide long-term certainty for Canadian economy

Published Sep 19, 2026  •  3 minute read

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Prime Minister Mark Carney at a working lunch with leaders of G7 and the Middle East, on June 16, 2026 in Evian-les-Bains, France. Photo by Evelyn Hockstein - Pool /Getty Images

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Whatever becoming an “associate member” of the European Union means, what it does is drive home the importance of Prime Minister Mark Carney reaching a deal with the U.S. on trade.

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Last year, the value of Canadian goods exported to the 27-member-country EU was $43 billion, or 5.5% of our total merchandise exports of $779 billion.

For added context, the total value of our merchandise exports to China — another country Carney is pursuing on trade — was $35 billion, or 4.5% of our total merchandise exports.

In comparison, the value of Canadian goods exported to the U.S. was $564.6 billion, or 72% of our total merchandise exports.

Carney has set a goal of doubling our exports to all non-U.S. markets by 2035, generating, he says, an extra $300 billion in trade to reduce our economic reliance on the U.S.

Trade with U.S. most important

But even if that happens, the U.S. will still be our single largest trading partner by far and 10 years is a long time.

First, Carney and/or the Liberals may not be in power in 2035.

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Second, a 10-year plan by any government in 2020, for example, would not have anticipated the global economic, energy, supply chain and inflation shocks caused by the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or Donald Trump winning a second term as U.S. president — all of which occurred by 2025.

To be sure, Carney’s plan to seek new foreign markets to reduce our reliance on the U.S. is sensible — something Canadian governments have been talking about doing for decades, while in reality, we couldn’t even get our own provinces to lower their trade barriers against each other.

In that sense, there’s nothing like a hanging to focus one’s mind, which is what Trump’s election and his ensuing trade and tariff policies have done in Canada, although the provinces are still moving far too slowly in removing their internal trade barriers.

Deal will provide long-term certainty

But from a national perspective, reaching a trade deal with the U.S. that provides long-term certainty for the Canadian economy must be Carney’s priority, whether it happens now or post-Trump.

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With Parliament resuming Monday after a three-month recess, it’s all well and good for the PM to fire up the Liberal caucus with a speech Friday containing repeated digs at Trump without mentioning his name.

It was also understandable given that a day rarely passes without Trump taking another shot at Canada.

But none of it gets us any closer to a trade deal with the Americans.

We already know that any deal will impose more and higher tariffs on Canadian goods and services than we have now in our trading relationship with the U.S., which Carney himself has acknowledged.

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   KINSELLA: Many reasons to embrace enhanced relationship with Europe
2. 

   Carney slams Trump tariff demands, unveils $7.5B bailout package during caucus address

3. 

   LILLEY: Carney’s Europe pitch works best when he stops taking shots at Trump

Eliminate economic uncertainty

But the reason reaching a trade deal with the Americans, either now or post-Trump, is essential, is to eliminate the economic uncertainty that the lack of a deal creates.

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Indeed, if Carney wants to grow our trade with the EU, one of the main selling points should be that entry into the Canadian market gives foreign and domestic investors doing so a safe, predictable and relatively inexpensive access into the U.S. market as well.

In that context, there are plenty of questions about Carney’s high-flying activities over the summer to which Canadians deserve answers.

Asking them is the appropriate job of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his MPs in their role as Canada’s official opposition, assuming they’re done with a summer of circling the wagons and firing at each other.

Need to define ‘associate member’

For example, what does Canada becoming the first-ever “associate member” of the EU mean for Canadian taxpayers, since Carney initially denied that’s what Canada was after?

That is, until European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen specifically used the term in relation to Canada during her annual state of the European Union address, in Strasbourg, France last Wednesday, with Carney in the audience.

Now, it’s apparently the same thing as Carney’s “unique alliance” or “alliance for the future” with the EU, which fits in perfectly with the EU’s diplomatic psychobabble.

Carney says what the deal contains will ultimately be submitted to Parliament, which is good, but with a Liberal majority government, we all know what that means,

Transparency means telling Canadians what the deal means to them before it’s a fait accompli.

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