Geoff Russ: Orbán gave Conservatives a blueprint for capturing institutions

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Allies should be rewarded, and parallel institutions should supplant or compete with those that already exist. For example, the Conservative government of Stephen Harper made the mistake of not doing more to support the Sun News Network, which might have blossomed into a true conservative institution in the private sector.

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However, the destruction of Orbán’s Fidesz demonstrates the limits of institutional capture. Even when everything was bent onwards Orbán’s ideology, from cultivated oligarchs to dominant public broadcasting, he still went down in flames.

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Inflation, economic malaise and plain public exhaustion overpowered Orbán’s machine, and Magyar has openly stated he plans to dismantle the Fidesz-aligned media apparatus while appearing on those same networks.

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Not even the Fidesz propaganda apparatus could suppress the public urge to toss out a tired regime that no longer delivered. Political empires collapse fast in Hungary. In 2006, the Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány was caught on tape confessing that his government had “lied in the morning” and “lied in the evening”, making promises to the people that they never intended to keep to earn their votes.

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Termed the Őszöd speech, it shattered the credibility of Gyurcsány and the Socialist brand forever. It cleared the road to Orbán’s ascendency in 2010, starting the near-17 year era of Fidesz rule that was finally defeated on Sunday.

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Canada’s Conservatives should keep their nerve. Mark Carney’s Liberals have slithered their way to a majority by cajoling opportunistic Conservatives, even those supposedly on the hard-right. The usual cast of regime sympathizers in the media came up with the usual excuses for it, wringing their hands and declaring that floor-crossing was the next mythical sacred cow of democracy.

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Carney and his aura of managerial competence seems unbeatable, but this is exactly how durable regimes appear in the middle of their run. He has made his own grand promises of returning Canada to glory with major projects, wealth creation, and national sovereignty, and his mostly monied, comfortable Boomer base lap it all up. Similarly, Orbán’s most reliable voters were older Hungarians, whose votes he secured with greater old-age welfare programs and cheap Russian fuel to heat their homes.

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Liberal rule is not permanent, no more than Fidesz rule was in Hungary. In a democracy, governing machines eventually run into the wall of voter exhaustion and economic downturns, both of which are stronger than the most elegant message discipline and institutional capture.

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Let the Canadian right take two lessons from Hungary all at once, whether it be provincial, municipal, or federal governments.

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The first is to govern as if they plan on building a 17-year regime, and enthusiastically use all levers at their disposal to secure it. Driving out and replacing as many political foes from the payroll is essential to achieving this.

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By all means, conservatives should shrink the state, for progressives use public service hires as a loyalty program, paid for productive members of society. For the space that is left, however, filling it with friends should be a top priority.

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The second lesson is to not despair when the political foe looks untouchable, for nothing lasts forever; not even Viktor Orbán, and certainly not Mark Carney.

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National Post

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