Fewer than half of Albertans say they would stay in a newly independent province: poll

Premier of Alberta Danielle Smith meets with Quebec Premier Christine Frechette in Quebec City on June 3, 2026. Photo by Francis Vachon for National Pos

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Fewer than half of Albertans are certain that they would continue living in their newly independent province should it separate from Canada, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll, as a referendum later this year is set to decide if the province wants to vote on breaking from the federation.

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According to the survey conducted between May 29 and June 1, 39 per cent of respondents said they would “continue to live in my new independent country” in the case of separation, while 38 per cent said they would move elsewhere in Canada. Nineteen per cent said they weren’t sure, and the remaining two per cent said they would move to another country altogether. 

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The proportion of those of who would remain is much larger in Quebec, where 56 per cent of respondents said they would stay in their “new independent country,” with just 24 per cent saying they would move elsewhere in Canada. 

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Among respondents polled outside of Alberta and Quebec, 10 per cent of respondents said they would move to an independent country of Alberta should the province separate from Canada, while just one per cent said they’d move to an independent Quebec. 

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Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s central Canada operations, said the survey should serve as a loose indication of peoples’ views toward separation rather than true moving intentions. Opposition to the independence movement in the province are strong, he said, yet the number of people who would actually pack up and leave might be lower in reality than the results suggest. 

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“I would fully expect that that number will be less,” Enns said. “I think that number is more of a temperature gauge on peoples’ emotions. This is a big deal for people.”

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Respondents widely viewed Alberta’s hypothetical separation from Canada as having a much greater economic impact on the rest of the country than Quebec’s, with 33 per cent saying Alberta’s would have the biggest negative impact of the two. Just eight per cent of respondents said Quebec’s separation would have the greater economic impact, while 45 per cent said it would be equal. The remaining 14 per cent said they didn’t know. 

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Enns said those results were hardly surprising given the amount of focus on the Alberta economy over the last year under Prime Minister Mark Carney, including Ottawa’s emphasis on using natural resources to combat Canada’s overdependence on U.S. trade.

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“We’ve heard a lot of talk, especially in the last 18 months, about how important our natural resources sector — particularly the Alberta energy sector — is for Canada’s economy,” he said.

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On the question of which province’s exit would have the greatest impact on “Canada’s national identity,” 17 per cent said Quebec and 15 per cent said Alberta. A majority (54 per cent) said the impact would be equal, while the remainder (14 per cent) didn’t know. 

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The poll results come just as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has confirmed that the province will see a separation-related question in its October referendum, appearing alongside nine other questions on issues like immigration and Senate reform. Separatist sentiments in Alberta have hit new highs in recent years, as frustrations over the province’s perceived place in confederation are reviving resentments that have lingered for decades.