David Clement: Counter-tariffs will hurt Canadians more than they’ll hurt Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on August 27, 2026 in Washington, DC. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

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Late Wednesday the federal government announced that it was removing seafood from Canada’s list of retaliatory tariffs. The finance ministry justified the move stating, “Based on feedback, we have made select adjustments to protect against broader economic harms, including removing seafood and fish products from our list of counter tariffs.”

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The invocation of economic harm here is a tell, because it should be obvious to everyone, our politicians included, that tariffs on foreign products are a tax paid for by domestic consumers.

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In fact, our politicians, both federal and provincial, have accurately pointed out that economic truth several times when talking about President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford told CBS News last year that “A tariff on Canada is a tax on Americans.” When the latest potential deal fell through last weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed that same sentiment: “tariffs are taxes, taxes which are ultimately paid by U.S. consumers,” he said in a statement.

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Saying this to the press should have immediately undermined the case for Canada to enact counter-tariffs, and our politicians should not have given in to the emotional response that “well, we have to do something.” If Trump is going to make life more expensive for American consumers with tariffs, our response should not be to engage in his economic delusions. Doing so makes life more expensive for Canadians.

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When Canada first imposed retaliatory tariffs last year, the Bank of Canada found that prices on tariffed goods rose six per cent and added 0.3 percentage points to headline inflation. So when this new round of crop of counter-tariffs takes effect on Sept. 8, we can expect that at least some of the costs will be passed on to Canadian consumers. But it gets worse, because Ottawa has committed $7.5 billion in support for workers and businesses affected by the tariffs, which means that Canadians are paying twice: first as consumers, and then again as taxpayers.

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Many have justified a counter-response for the purpose of getting the U.S. to change course. Commentators and former federal staffers have argued that our counter-tariffs are worth the domestic cost because Canada has the opportunity to cause pain for Americans, so much so that it could impact the upcoming midterm elections.

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The thought process here is that if Canada can strategically impact those swing states, voters will vote for Democrats, who could remove tariff power from the president and get us back to something resembling normalcy.

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This viewpoint seems rather straightforward, but it is incredibly naive. To pass a bill revoking Trump’s tariff powers, both the House and the Senate would need a two-thirds majority to be able to override a presidential veto. However, there is no fathomable scenario where the Democrats sweep enough of the midterms to have two-thirds of either house.

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There are 20 toss-up congressional districts, which is simply not enough to get the Democrats anywhere close to where they would need to be. There are only six potential Senate seats the Democrats could reasonably flip if we are being generous, again nowhere near what would be needed. This reality needs to be acknowledged because enacting a tax on ourselves to try and generate a political outcome that appears impossible is nonsensical.