Cowan: Can Canadiens’ youthful skill overcome Lightning’s experience in best-of-three?

Before the first round of the playoffs started, captain Nick Suzuki spoke about how the Canadiens wouldn’t be intimidated by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Canadiens entered the playoffs as the youngest team with an average age of 25.8. The Buffalo Sabres were the second-youngest at 27.1, while the Lightning had an average age of 29.9 and are in the playoffs for the ninth straight season, including back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and 2021.

“I think we’ve built our game throughout the whole season, learning different things individually, as a team,” Suzuki said before the series. “I think we’re in a much better spot than we were last year in the playoffs (when the Canadiens lost in five games to the Washington Capitals in the first round). We’ve matched up against these guys well in the last couple of years. I think there’s no intimidation. We’re just ready to get rolling. Two really good teams going up against each other, so it will be fun for everybody.”

Canadiens’ Lane Hutson passes the puck from behind Jakub Dobes’s net while being watched by Lightning forward Oliver Bjorkstrand during Game 4 Sunday night at the Bell Centre. (John Mahoney / MONTREAL GAZETTE) John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette

The first four games of the best-of-seven series have indeed been a lot of fun to watch, with the teams tied 2-2 heading into Game 5 Wednesday in Tampa (7 p.m., CBC,SN, TVA Sports).

These teams couldn’t be more evenly matched through four games. They are tied 11-11 in goals and the shots are 94-93 in favour of the Lightning. The Canadiens are 5-for-19 on the power play and the Lightning are 4-for-20. Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes has an .883 save percentage and Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is at .882.

Before the series started I picked the Lightning to win in six games because of their advantage in experience and because of Vasilevskiy, who came into this series with a career 16-5-2 regular-season record against the Canadiens and a career .918 save percentage in the playoffs.

My prediction could still be right, but not because of Vasilevskiy — at least up to this point — who has been matched save-for-save by Dobes. With a break here or there, the Canadiens could easily be up 3-1 or maybe even swept the series with the first three games all decided in overtime and Montreal blowing a 2-0 lead in Game 4.

But the experience factor has definitely come into play for Tampa in the third period of the first four games, during which the Lightning has outscored the Canadiens 4-1.

The experience factor has also come into play in the matchup between the team’s top lines. The Canadiens’ Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky have yet to score an even-strength goal through the first four games. Caufield, who has one power-play goal, is minus-5. Slafkovsky, who had three power-play goals in Game 1, is minus-4 and Suzuki is also minus-4 and still looking for his first goal of the series.

Lightning head coach Jon Cooper has matched up Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Nikita Kucherov or Jake Guentzel against the Canadiens’ top line. Those four Lightning players have combined for nine goals in the series, including six at even strength. Hagel has six goals, including two on the power play, and is plus-6. That’s the same Hagel who attended the Canadiens’ 2018 rookie camp but wasn’t offered a contract by former GM Marc Bergevin.

Point, Hagel, Kucherov and Guentzel combined have 371 games of playoff experience and five Stanley Cup rings. Point and Kucherov were both with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021, while Guentzel won the Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2017. Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky have 79 games of playoff experience combined.

“I think there was a lot more chances the last couple of games, they just didn’t go in,” Suzuki said after the Canadiens practised Tuesday morning in Brossard before flying to Tampa. “We just got to keep creating and eventually it will turn our way.

“We’ve learned more as a line,” the captain added. “We’ve had to play against them, what works, how they’re defending us. I think we’re turning a corner here and hopefully we can help the team win the game tomorrow.”

The Canadiens top line has to start producing five-on-five for them to have a chance to win what is now a best-of-three series. The Canadiens will also have to find a way to shut down Hagel, who scored two goals — including the winner — in the Lightning’s 3-2 victory in Game 4.

It’s both impressive and encouraging how the Canadiens have been able to go toe-to-toe with the Lightning. The Canadiens’ window of opportunity to win the Stanley Cup is just starting to open, while the Lightning’s is starting to close after losing in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last three years.

“Honestly, it’s just really good hockey,” Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson said. “No reason to shy away. Just two great teams going at it and that’s just how it is.”

What’s the biggest challenge now that it’s a best-of-three series?

“I think the challenge itself is they’re a great team, we’re a great team,” Hutson said. “There’s going to be ups and downs throughout the game and how quickly can you swing it back in your favour?”

The Lightning still has the edge in experience when it comes to doing that.

But the Canadiens have shown they shouldn’t be counted out.

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