Could the Houthis be next? Yemenis reflect on the fall of Syria’s al-Assad

Sanaa, Yemen – Mansour Saleh, a 25-year-old past postgraduate successful Sanaa, has been glued to the governmental and subject developments successful Syria.

“Stunning”, “mysterious” and “unexpected”, are among immoderate of the words helium utilized to picture what happened successful the state this month.

The fall of Syrian person Bashar al-Assad earlier successful December has acceptable millions of Yemenis reasoning astir what lies successful store for their ain country.

Some accidental the autumn of the Iran-allied Houthis successful Yemen – who power Sanaa and overmuch of bluish and occidental Yemen – whitethorn beryllium the “next surprise” successful the region.

“My friends person antithetic views. Some called me, blessed astir the eclipse of the Syrian regime, and others were bittersweet implicit specified a scenario. We’re a highly divided society,” said Saleh.

Crying implicit the autumn of Damascus

Al-Assad’s decision feels idiosyncratic to Houthi supporters who spot themselves arsenic portion of a broader, Iran-led, “axis of resistance” to Israel and the United States.

Under al-Assad, Syria was considered a cardinal portion of the axis and a way for the transportation of weapons betwixt Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.

Abdulrahman Ali, a 40-year-old successful Sanaa, says the demise of the erstwhile Syrian authorities is simply a “massive loss”.

“When I watched the quality connected the autumn of Damascus to Turkey-backed Syrian militant groups, I cried. Personally, I don’t attraction astir Bashar. What matters is the continued spot of the axis of resistance,” Ali told Al Jazeera.

The Houthis, who held an equipped takeover of Sanaa successful September 2014 and then, successful 2015, forced retired the internationally-recognised government, are portion of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’, which includes the Islamic Resistance successful Iraq, the Popular Mobilisation Forces successful Iraq, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The erstwhile Syrian authorities was besides considered portion of the axis.

The Houthi takeover prompted a warfare arsenic the ousted authorities and determination allies – led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – tried to wrest backmost power of Yemen.

In April 2022, a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire halted the fighting, but power remains divided among assorted groups, including the Houthis, and the Yemeni authorities and the Southern Transitional Council successful the southbound and east.

Today, pro-Houthi Yemenis similar Ali accidental the warfare whitethorn good commencement up again successful Yemen.

“The existent script successful Syria whitethorn entice anti-Ansar Allah groups to motorboat a war,” helium said, utilizing the authoritative sanction for the Houthis. “This volition propulsion america into a caller rhythm of violence.”

The Houthi enactment is not frightened of a renewal of fighting, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a elder subordinate of the Houthi Supreme Political Council successful Sanaa, said successful a televised interrogation connected December 12.

He added that the Houthis were acceptable should the “aggression” connected Yemen resume, utilizing a word the Houthis employment for attacks by the forces pitted against them.

“The Yemeni radical bash not attraction astir threats,” al-Houthi added. “Any foolishness committed by the Israeli force against Yemen volition trigger the [military] operations of the Yemeni equipped forces.”

‘Ending the Iranian presence’

On the different broadside of the Yemeni disagreement are millions opposed to the Houthis who spot al-Assad’s autumn arsenic a triumph for state and a decision for tyranny.

“Finally, the Syrian radical person justice,” said Faisal Mohammed, a 39-year-old teacher successful Taiz, a metropolis mostly held by anti-Houthi forces that suffered for years arsenic a effect of a siege imposed by the rebel group. “Assad’s autumn gives america anticipation that the Arab satellite tin emergence supra oppression.”

Faisal Mohammed sees events successful Syria arsenic a connection to the Houthis.

“The Assads’ dynastic regularisation has crumbled aft 54 years… nary substance however agelong the Houthis continue, they volition conscionable the aforesaid destiny.”

With Iranian enactment implicit the past decade, including weapons and experts, the Houthis person fought galore battles against pro-government forces successful Yemen and tightened their grip successful ample swaths of Yemen.

The radical has appeared secure, militarily and politically, and Saudi Arabia has for years been looking for a mode retired of its engagement successful Yemen, appearing adjacent to a woody with the Houthis astatine times. The anti-Houthi camp, connected the different hand, has often appeared anemic and divided, with galore anti-Houthi Yemenis disappointed with the failures of their representatives.

In fact, it had appeared that the Yemeni authorities would person to acquiesce to immoderate signifier of deal with the Houthis oregon beryllium frozen retired by Saudi Arabia.

However, events successful the wider region, including the wide weakness of Iran and its allies arsenic a effect of their struggle with Israel, person fixed galore successful the anti-Houthi campy anticipation that things person changed.

“Hezbollah has suffered huge losses astatine the hands of Israel, and Assad’s authorities is eliminated. Iran could bash nothing,” Faisal Mohammed said. “Therefore, the Houthis volition apt conscionable a akin destiny, and this means the Iranian beingness successful Yemen volition beryllium uprooted.”

Mohammed Abdu, a Taiz-based Yemeni writer with a absorption connected authorities and war, told Al Jazeera that a combat to dislodge the Houthis would beryllium “challenging”.

“Houthi subject unit and prowess is huge. They person thousands of fighters and limb arsenals,” helium said.

“However, a corporate effort by the Yemeni authorities and its determination and planetary allies tin quicken the Houthi collapse.”

A cautionary tale

For immoderate Yemenis, however, al-Assad’s autumn serves arsenic a informing much than thing else.

“Syria shows america that removing a dictator is not the extremity of the story,” said Yunis Saleh, a shopkeeper successful Sanaa. “What matters is what comes next. If Syria does not find peace, we volition look the aforesaid endless rhythm of violence.”

Yemenis weary of warfare echo this sentiment, careless of their governmental affiliations. For them, al-Assad’s autumn is simply a reminder of the request for a broad solution to Yemen’s decade-long crisis.

The warfare betwixt the Saudi Arabian-backed Yemeni authorities and the Iran-aligned Houthis has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said successful March this twelvemonth that arsenic the struggle successful Yemen enters its 10th year, much than fractional of the country’s colonisation is successful hopeless request of aid.

An estimated 17.8 cardinal radical necessitate wellness assistance, 50 percent of them children; 4.5 cardinal radical are displaced; and much than 3,700 schools person been damaged oregon repurposed, the UN said.

‘By bid oregon by force’

Abdulsalam Mohammed, the caput of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ actions successful the waterways astir Yemen, wherever the radical has attacked ships ostensibly successful solidarity with Palestinians successful Gaza nether onslaught by Israel, had led to planetary isolation, and a run of aerial attacks led by the United States and the United Kingdom.

The Houthis person besides conducted rocket and drone attacks connected Israel, starring to Israeli attacks connected Yemen.

Having been removed by the US from its violent designation database successful 2021, the Houthis were re-added to it past January.

“There is simply a national, determination and planetary determination to extremity the regularisation of the Houthis successful Yemen, whether by bid oregon by force,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “Time volition archer however this volition materialise.”

Abdulsalam Mohammed besides believes that this crook distant from the Houthis extends to the Gulf.

“The Houthi drones and missiles person perpetually threatened the oil-producing Gulf states,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “Therefore, erstwhile the accidental comes to weaken the Houthis, the Gulf volition capitalise connected it. Similarly, Houthi opponents successful Yemen volition prioritise a subject solution arsenic the group’s autumn becomes possible.”

The decision of the “axis of resistance” successful Syria and its losses successful Lebanon could besides pave the mode for the autumn of the Houthis successful Yemen, according to Abdulsalam Mohammed.

“The Houthis person been looking for caller allies, specified arsenic Russia,” helium said. “However, this does not forestall the script of Hezbollah’s illness oregon the autumn of al-Assad’s regularisation from being repeated successful Yemen.”

“This is simply a aureate accidental for the Yemeni authorities to regain power of provinces it mislaid to the Houthis implicit the past years of war.”

But that mightiness beryllium easier said than done. There person been fewer indications that anti-Houthi forces are gearing up for a large offensive.

The Houthis power immoderate of the astir populated parts of Yemen, but the territory is besides mostly mountainous and easier to support than the much level terrain of the erstwhile Syrian opposition’s beforehand towards Damascus earlier it fell. The Houthis besides inactive person the enactment of galore of Yemen’s influential tribes, successful particular, the tribes that situation Sanaa, which are captious to immoderate accidental of taking backmost power of the capital.

Saleh, the past postgraduate successful Sanaa, described the ambiance successful Yemen arsenic calm for now, but added that it could “explode astatine immoderate moment”.

“The Houthis hold for a life-and-death battle, and their opponents stay hesitant to statesman a war,” Saleh said. “It whitethorn statesman astatine immoderate time, but its extremity volition beryllium indefinite.”