Could Canada cut off potash to the U.S.? It’s a ‘high stakes game of chicken,’ says an expert

FILE: A man collects potash at the Nutrien Pilot Plant, a technical facility supporting potash operations across Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Sask. Photo by Michelle Berg /Saskatoon StarPhoenix

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As the trade war between Canada and the U.S. continues to escalate, potash has emerged as a potential bargaining chip.

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the resource is “one of the most powerful tools” Canada has in negotiations while speaking at a press conference in Vaughan on Wednesday, adding that the U.S. agricultural sector would be “dead overnight” if Canada were to cut it off. “Everyone in the world wants our potash,” he said.

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National Post spoke to Akaash Maharaj, a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, who confirmed that potash has become “indispensable” to the American agriculture sector, which is “currently dependent on Canadian exports.”

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But the reality of whether Canada could restrict supply to the U.S. is complicated, and comes with consequences for both sides of the border.

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What is potash?

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Potash is a group of minerals and chemicals that contain potassium. Its main form, after deep-earth mining and milling, is potassium chloride (KCl), almost all of which is used as a fertilizer to improve crop root strength, disease resistance, water retention and yield by protecting and restoring soil fertility. This makes it essential to global food security.

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Small amounts are sometimes used in other products like detergents, soaps, water softeners, snow and ice melters, and pharmaceutical products.

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How much potash does Canada export to the U.S.?

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Canada is the world’s largest producer and exporter of potash, and the United States is the leading destination of its potash exports, with 53 per cent sent south of the border in 2024, according to Natural Resources Canada. The U.S. also gets a small amount of potash from domestic production and other countries, such as Israel and Russia.

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Data from Trading Economics, which is based on the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, shows that Canada exported $3.84B worth of fertilizer to the U.S. in 2025 out of a total of $408.99B in exports. Israel exported a much smaller amount of fertilizer to the U.S., valued at $271.60M, in 2025.

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Potash is spread out drying on a tour of the Nutrien Pilot Plant, a technical facility supporting potash operations across Saskatchewan, in Saskatoon. Photo by Michelle Berg /Saskatoon StarPhoenix

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What would happen if Canada cut off potash to the U.S.?

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Maharaj tells National Post that if Canada were to place export tariffs on potash, or otherwise reduce exports, it could “starve out the American agricultural sector.”

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He says it would be a particularly bad moment for the U.S.’s access to be restricted, because they have few other potash suppliers due to sanctions placed on Belarus and Russia in recent years.

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Meanwhile, the war in Iran has meant that global competition for fertilizers and fertilizer products has skyrocketed at the very moment when the supply of potash from Russia and Belarus has been choked off.

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If Canada were to cut off its potash supply, “it would provoke a crisis in the United States,” Maharaj says, adding to spiralling food costs.