Continuity or change? What to know about Colombia’s run-off election

Voters successful Colombia are preparing to caput to the polls for the 2nd clip successful little than a period to determine who volition beryllium the South American country’s adjacent president.

But the 2 candidates competing successful Sunday’s run-off connection starkly differing visions for the country’s future.

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One candidate, left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda, has pledged continuity with the authorities of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who championed anti-poverty measures and negotiations with the country’s equipped groups.

The other, far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella, has promised a interruption from constitution politics, including a swerve distant from negotiated solutions and towards much military-led responses to transgression and violence.

De la Espriella emerged with a tiny vantage implicit Cepeda successful the first circular of voting connected May 31, earning 43 percent of the ballot compared with the senator’s 40 percent.

Margins are erstwhile again choky going into the 2nd round, but pre-election polls amusement de la Espriella  up of Cepeda.

Who are the 2 candidates, what issues are animating the election, and what tin we expect during the 2nd circular of voting? We reply those questions and much successful this little explainer.

Right-wing campaigner Abelardo de la Espriella, left, volition look left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda during the last circular of Colombia’s statesmanlike contention [Luis Acosta/AFP]

When is the election?

The run-off ballot volition instrumentality spot connected June 21.

What happened during the archetypal circular of voting?

Cepeda had been starring successful the pre-election polls up of the May 31 wide election.

But successful an upset, de la Espriella came successful archetypal spot with 43.7 percent of the vote. Cepeda trailed with 40.9 percent. Neither, however, secured a bulk of 50 percent oregon much to debar a run-off race.

The astonishment result led President Petro to impeach backstage firms of manipulating the predetermination results successful favour of the right-wing candidate.

“As president, I bash not judge the results of the preliminary count,” Petro wrote connected societal media soon aft the results were tallied.

Initially, Cepeda appeared to echo Petro’s scepticism, but helium aboriginal conceded that determination were nary irregularities successful the archetypal circular of voting.

The European Union’s Election Observation Mission besides affirmed that determination was nary grounds of malfeasance successful the election.

What tin circular 1 archer america astir circular two?

De la Espriella is believed to person an vantage coming retired of the archetypal circular of voting.

In the wide election, right-wing voters were divided betwixt antithetic candidates, including de la Espriella, blimpish Senator Paloma Valencia and centrist Sergio Fajardo.

Now, successful the 2nd circular of voting, de la Espriella is expected to consolidate immoderate of the voters who antecedently formed their ballot for Valencia and Fajardo.

The archetypal circular besides revealed a geographical disagreement betwixt the regions that supported Cepeda and the regions wherever de la Espriella won.

Majorities successful coastal and borderline regions, arsenic good arsenic successful the superior Bogota, voted for Cepeda. But cardinal departments, which person been hard deed by Colombia’s interior equipped conflict, tilted towards de la Espriella.

Who is Ivan Cepeda?

Senator Ivan Cepeda is moving arsenic the nominee for the country’s left-wing governing coalition, known arsenic Historic Pact.

Cepeda has promised to proceed with Petro’s efforts to trim societal and economical inequality.

But 1 of the prevailing issues successful this year’s predetermination has been security, arsenic Colombia continues to contend with its six-decade-long interior conflict.

Petro has sought to defuse that struggle done negotiations with equipped groups, arsenic portion of a argumentation called “Total Peace”.

While Cepeda has pledged to betterment “Total Peace”, helium has backed the argumentation wide arsenic a needed departure from decades of militarised approaches and rights abuses.

Petro’s approach, however, has faced disapproval for failing to stem the conflict, with incidents of unit connected the emergence successful caller years. The International Committee of the Red Cross, for instance, said the fig of radical displaced by unit doubled successful the past year.

But Cepeda has brought his ain experiences with Colombia’s struggle to the election.

His father, besides a senator, was assassinated successful 1994 successful a shooting that was wide believed to beryllium carried retired by government-backed paramilitary groups. Afterwards, Cepeda dedicated himself to advocacy connected behalf of the victims of “state crimes”.

As a senator, Cepeda besides accused a almighty erstwhile president, Alvaro Uribe, of collaboration with right-wing paramilitary groups. His allegations launched a years-long tribunal lawsuit that concisely saw Uribe convicted of bribery and witnesser tampering, earlier the verdict was overturned.

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

Facing off against Cepeda is simply a campaigner from the acold close who is, successful astir each way, his opposite.

Criminal defence lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella has nary erstwhile governmental experience, though helium has utilized that information to his advantage, portraying himself arsenic a palmy businessman.

De la Espriella founded a self-named covering marque arsenic good arsenic a edifice successful South Florida, and helium has besides forged a vocation arsenic a tenor, releasing classical-pop albums.

Running with the Defenders of the Homeland Party, de la Espriella has pledged a hardline attack to security. His level includes ending each negotiations with equipped groups and bombing their camps.

He has besides projected the operation of 10 mega-prisons and would restart aerial fumigation efforts to termination the crops utilized to marque cocaine.

His supporters reason specified a hardline attack is indispensable to rein successful Colombia’s violence.

“Of course, whenever you travel down with a dense hand, there’s ever going to beryllium debate,” elector Maria Eugenia told The Associated Press (AP) quality agency. “But immoderate radical are going to person to autumn to cleanable up what needs to beryllium cleaned up.”

Colombia has agelong been a adjacent state successful the United States-led “war connected drugs”, and de la Espriella has pledged helium volition enactment intimately with US President Donald Trump to guarantee determination security.

In the realm of economical policy, de la Espriella has been compared to Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, who has pushed guardant a programme of sweeping austerity and deregulation.

What’s astatine stake?

While Cepeda has campaigned connected continuity with the existent government, experts pass that a triumph of de la Espriella could nonstop Colombia veering successful an uncharted direction.

De la Espriella’s level would spot Colombia retreat from immoderate planetary institutions, including the Inter-American Court for Human Rights, and helium has projected rolling backmost the close to entree abortion, arsenic portion of his blimpish societal platform.

But immoderate of the astir aggravated scrutiny has fallen connected his information policy. Critics question whether his iron-fisted, military-led attack volition exacerbate the unit Colombia already faces.

“We’re a state that has lived done 60 years of conflict,” sociologist Juan Acevedo told the AP quality bureau during the archetypal circular of voting. “The information present is that we instrumentality to the times wherever everyone is saying that the lone mode to lick our problems is with bullets and much war.”

What bash polls say?

De la Espriella is expected to clasp an vantage going into the run-off, with polls consistently putting him successful the lead.

The probe steadfast AtlasIntel, for instance, released a poll connected June 13 showing de la Espriella with 50.9 percent of the vote, with different 43.1 percent going to Cepeda.

Roughly 5.9 percent of voters, however, said they either did not cognize who to ballot for oregon planned to nullify their votes. Those undecided and protestation voters could beryllium captious successful determining the outcome.

Critics besides underscore that polls bash not needfully foretell the result of immoderate race. After all, successful circular 1 of Colombia’s statesmanlike election, it was de la Espriella who trailed successful the polls — but helium yet landed successful archetypal place.

What has Donald Trump said astir the election?

Trump has repeatedly endorsed right-wing candidates successful Latin America’s elections, and helium has continued that inclination with Colombia.

Following de la Espriella’s occurrence successful the archetypal circular of voting, Trump congratulated the far-right campaigner and compared himself to the 47-year-old.

“Abelardo fights tirelessly for, and loves, his Great Country and People, conscionable similar I bash for the United States of America,” Trump posted connected Truth Social connected June 10.

“Because of his tremendous accomplishments successful life, and his governmental enactment for me, it is my Honor to springiness Abelardo my Complete and Total Endorsement.”

In his post, Trump expressed affinity for de la Espriella’s hardline level connected crime, cause trafficking and immigration, priorities helium shares.

He besides blasted Cepeda arsenic a “Radical Left Marxist” and suggested that Colombia’s narration with the US could beryllium acceptable backmost if the left-wing campaigner wins.

“The results of this Election are precise important to the aboriginal of Colombia and its narration to the United States which, if Abelardo wins, and due to the fact that of his competence and emotion of his Country, volition person the full enactment and spot of the United States down him,” Trump wrote.

De la Espriella responded with a societal media post of his own, thanking Trump.

“With my caput held precocious and a bosom afloat of patriotic gratitude, I person your words and your steadfast support,” de la Espriella said.

But Trump’s endorsement has triggered interest that helium mightiness question to power the result of Colombia’s election.

On Wednesday, US Representative Jesus “Chuy” Garcia issued a connection calling Trump’s actions “shameless interference”.

“Our authorities indispensable respect, not undermine, the ideology and sovereignty of our neighbors successful the region,” Garcia wrote.