Colby Cosh: Naheed Nenshi is completely fumbling the trade war

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, joined by Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction critic Gurinder Brar, spoke to media in Calgary on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 criticizing Danielle Smith's position toward the ongoing trade talks with the U.S. Photo by Brent Calver/Postmedia

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The Canadian Press’s Dayne Patterson reports Wednesday morning that Alberta’s floundering opposition leader, Naheed Nenshi, is demanding that Alberta’s consultative October referendum on separation be postponed … because of the developing U.S.-Canada trade war. If you’re busy today, just picture me laughing and saying “Whaaa?” for a few seconds and then move on in good conscience. NDP Leader Nenshi never wanted to have a referendum in the first place, so one supposes any excuse for such a demand will do; maybe next week he’ll want the vote called off because of a comet or other celestial portent.

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I wasn’t keen on a nebulous separation referendum myself, but it seems to me the thing to do in the face of an electoral test is to go cast a ballot, advocate for a position, try your best to have your side win, etc., etc. All that good democracy stuff, which I do understand to not be the historical strong suit of the Alberta New Democrats.

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It seems to me that from a purely strategic standpoint, the trade war is a giant expensive gift to the federalist side of the referendum, which shouldn’t have any trouble winning no matter what happens. The separatist cause in Alberta is fragmented, and contains some radical libertarians who would genuinely like an independent (but landlocked) microstate managed on Javier Milei principles; others are pure scoundrels who pretty obviously see the separation fantasy as a first step toward political union with the culturally superior States.

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Whichever future you might imagine in contemplating secession, it involves giving the U.S. greater weight and negotiating power in Albertan affairs — and the more conservative or classical-liberal you are, the uglier the spectacle of the trade war really is. One of my political axioms is that trade is a substitute for war, and that maximizing trade serves practically as a substitute for it. The United States’ scores on quasi-objective indices of economic and political freedom are spiralling, and its Constitution is being subjected to naked violence.

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And our instinctive feelings of kinship with the American people are suffering new injuries every day. Most Americans are perhaps confused or even annoyed to find that the president they have elected twice regards Canada as an illegitimate, conniving rogue state, but we are learning the hard truth that this attitude doesn’t truly traumatize or upset them. The median U.S. voter half-agrees with Trump, or is willing to dismiss his territorial belligerence as ironic, cheeky posturing. No doubt one day the Stars and Stripes really will fly everywhere under heaven, and beyond. Trump’s not really wrong, you see, just impolitely early.

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In time, Canada and the U.S. may become the friendly continental yokemates they once were; and at that very time there might be a serious danger in the existence of an Alberta “separatist” movement full of republican closet cases. For now, separatists seem to me to be facing maximum headwinds. Hypothetical concerns about foreign “interference” with a referendum are in a state of near-mania. The biggest star in the separatist movement is facing extremely vexing legal troubles. The Albertan Liberal prime minister’s approval ratings appear to net out to about zero in Alberta these days, which is a remarkable, even historic phenomenon.

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And, sure, there’s always the conspiracy theory that Ottawa will blast Alberta with export taxes on oil as soon as the separation vote is past, but it’s not 1980 anymore: Saskatchewan’s oil and gas production has flourished, making our neighbour more of a fellow hostage, and Newfoundland’s economy is now just as oil-dependent as Alberta’s, so it’s politically not as easy to single Alberta out to suffer the blows in the front rank of a trade war.

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National Post

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