Colby Cosh: Alberta separatists self-sabotage by rejecting expertise

A separatist supporter waves a flag during as part of a convoy in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026, as they submit boxes of signatures in the hope of triggering an independence referendum. Photo by Henry MARKEN / AFP via Getty Images

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On Wednesday morning, the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy published a report commissioned by the province on the economic implications of Alberta separation. Must this document itself already count as part of the wastefulness induced by the contrived separation debate? I’m afraid that has been my mood during the initial perusal of it, as much as I instinctively dislike the coming wave of oversimplifying “ALBERTA SECESSION WOULD COST THREE ZILLION GRILLION DOLLARS” headlines.

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The report identifies several ways in which an independent Alberta might, quite realistically, end up better off in the not-too-long run with separation. The economic impacts are projected under “smooth” and “difficult” political scenarios, with lots of other sources of uncertainty in the background, and the smooth scenario recognizes that Canada really does exploit Alberta in ways that independence would resolve, albeit at enormous upfront expense.

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I don’t know if the report will tell intelligent Alberta voters anything they shouldn’t already have figured out for themselves. I suppose that out here we have all had the thought that we don’t get much out of being part of a sprawling imperial relic that has to maintain a navy and a coast guard while bedewing favoured businesses in the bargain. Independent Alberta will pass the savings on to you! At which point you remember that we probably do want an air force, which we might have to build from scratch, and we’ll want a communications and cybersecurity establishment, if only to protect us from the Canadians, and we’ll need a whole international diplomatic structure sooner or later, and a funded central bank, if our Sovereign Alberta wants one …

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And then someone reminds you that WestJet has immediate business-model problems on Day One of independence — if it doesn’t abscond to Vancouver, which it would; and someone observes that we will have to tear up much of border-straddling Lloydminster to create a customs station through its guts; and so on and so forth. Actually, Lloyd isn’t mentioned in the report except in passing. It could probably have its own picturesque chapter.

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What keeps occurring to me is that the report is the creation of people who would be incomparably important figures in post-separation Alberta economics and political science, whether you like it or not. The U of C Policy School itself would surely become our equivalent of the French École nationale d’administration that generates the dominant énarque caste. The separatists couldn’t reasonably have asked for (and could not produce) a more Alberta-identitarian group of advisors and technical specialists. Ted Morton and Jack Mintz are on the advisory panel, and have signed off on the report’s conclusions; the actual authors include Trevor Tombe, Kent Fellows, and other public finance specialists of the most impressive calibre. These people are already helping to cook and serve our high economic policy.