Canada, U.S. both roll back welcome mat for international students

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“That (Duration of Status) rule change will very likely have a negative impact on the experience of international students who are already here,” said Clay Harmon, executive director of the Association of International Enrollment Management.

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Aw said the change would severely hurt graduate and Ph.D. programs, since every doctoral student would need an extension to finish.

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Rather than letting the schools handle such decisions, these would be adjudicated by the federal government, adding another layer of uncertainty.

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The Canadian government, meanwhile, issued 516,765 study permits in 2024, down 24.1 per cent from 681,215 in 2023. Ottawa later set a 2025 target of 437,000 permits and lowered this year’s ceiling to 408,000.

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Ottawa also added a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) requirement with the province confirming the admission falls within the federal admission quota for the region. Most new international students need their school to apply for a PAL before they can submit a permit application. New international students must also now meet a Cost of Living Proof showing sufficient funds of $22,895, and they face tighter Post-Graduation Work Permit rules. 

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Even so, some experts say the market is beginning to absorb the new rules and may be more stable going forward.

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Bezo, for example, notes how the backlog of permit applications has eased, and that there has been some stabilization over the past year. She is also encouraged that the Carney government seems more focused on enhancing skills of the Canadian workforce, especially for Ph.D.s, postdocs, and research talent.

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Harmon also believes the Canadian market has “absorbed the new reality” of caps and PALs and may be better positioned to bounce back. He also said some Canadian academics “believe the Carney government may be proposing or planning to propose some loosening.” 

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“Most folks are kind of anticipating that Canada will start an upswing,” he said.

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Aw would like to see stabilization in the U.S. student market too, but she does not expect it as long as the Trump administration continues lumping international students together with undocumented migrants as targets.

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More positive messaging on the international stage, maintaining the ability for students to do Optional Practical Training, doing away with the durational status change, and unlocking visa appointments, she said, would “allow the students who are waiting to come this fall to have an opportunity to come here.”

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In the meantime, universities and communities in both countries are feeling the strain because international students can be a source of economic activity. In the U.S., NAFSA estimated that international student spending contributed nearly $43 billion to the economy in 2024-25, while a 2022 Canadian government report put the figure at roughly $22 billion.

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Elite universities are more protected than their regional and mid-tier counterparts, said Aw, “but small colleges will be much more hard-hit.”

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McGill University’s enrolment report, for example, shows the number of enrolled international students has largely remained consistent. The same is true for the University of Toronto, said to Joseph Wong, the school’s vice-president for international admissions.

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 “U of T’s position as Canada’s leading university and among the best in the world has protected it against the significant drops in international enrolment experienced by some other Canadian post-secondary institutions in response to an evolving policy and geopolitical landscape,” he said

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Harvard University’s international enrolment last autumn, meanwhile, reportedly hit a record high.