Can US-Iran peace ‘deal’ survive Israeli bombing of Lebanon?

The fragile United States-Iran peace agreement is hanging by a thread arsenic Israel intensifies its subject run successful confederate Lebanon, raising fears it could unravel earlier ceremonial negotiations are completed.

The agreement, which the US and Iran signed earlier this week, triggers a 60-day dialog play for the 2 to scope a ceremonial bid deal, and talks were expected to statesman successful Switzerland connected Friday.

However, US Vice President JD Vance cancelled his formation to Switzerland connected Thursday nighttime astatine the past infinitesimal aft Israeli bombing successful confederate Lebanon, which killed astatine slightest 18 people, aft which Iran said its negotiators were not prepared to statesman talks until the agreement, which stipulates that Lebanon is included successful the ceasefire, showed signs of being implemented.

Analysts accidental Israel’s continued bombardment of confederate Lebanon is poised to derail immoderate anticipation of ending the warfare successful the Middle East. Israel presently occupies one-fifth of Lebanon, which it has subjected to near-daily attacks since aboriginal March. More than 3,000 radical person been killed, and much than 1 cardinal person been displaced from their homes.

While the US-Iran statement stipulates that some sides volition perpetrate to ensuring the “territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”, Israeli officials person stated this week that their forces volition not retreat from the territory. Ministers successful Israel person said “all of Lebanon indispensable burn.”

So, tin the woody past successful the look of Israeli bombing? And tin President Donald Trump rein successful Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu?

President Donald Trump speaks arsenic Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, and Vice President JD Vance perceive successful the Oval Office astatine the White House, Thursday, April 23, 2026, successful Washington, Dc [Mark Schiefelbein/AP]

Why person Iranian and US negotiators cancelled trips to Switzerland?

Neither broadside has fixed an authoritative crushed for cancelling trips to statesman the awaited talks, which were to beryllium held astatine the Burgenstock Resort successful Stansstad, adjacent Lucerne successful cardinal Switzerland.

A connection from the White House noted that “the plans for the upcoming method talks person not been finalised,” adding that the Vance-led delegation is “prepared to depart astatine the archetypal disposable opportunity”.

However, it added, “the logistics of these negotiations person ne'er been elemental oregon predictable. As of now, the Vice President is not departing tonight.”

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim quality bureau reported that determination was nary confirmation that Iranian negotiators would question for talks, due to the fact that they archetypal wanted ⁠to spot signs that the interim agreement, which includes Lebanon successful the US-Iran ceasefire, is being implemented.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry followed up with a statement, saying talks to instrumentality the preliminary woody struck betwixt Tehran and ⁠Washington to extremity the warfare person been “postponed”.

No caller day has yet been acceptable for talks to commence, contempt the 60-day timepiece for a woody to beryllium reached opening connected Thursday this week.

Israeli subject vehicles thrust connected a Lebanese roadworthy by the Israel-Lebanon border, arsenic seen from bluish Israel, June 18, 2026 [Gil Eliyahu/Reuters]

What’s happening successful Lebanon?

Just aft midnight section clip connected Thursday nighttime (21:00 GMT), residents successful confederate Lebanon woke up to the commencement of an aggravated Israeli bombardment of their villages and cities, hours earlier US-Iran talks were scheduled to statesman successful Switzerland.

The attacks person truthful acold killed astatine slightest 18 radical and wounded dozens, with the largest fig of bodies pulled retired from a bombed-out residential gathering successful Harouf village.

Israel has been connected 1 of its deadliest sprees of attacks connected confederate Lebanon since its ally, the US, came into an statement with Iran to extremity the hostilities connected each fronts – including Lebanon.

Israel began near-daily attacks connected Lebanon successful aboriginal March, erstwhile the Iran-backed Lebanese radical Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel successful effect to the US-Israeli attacks connected Tehran that killed the ultimate leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and different apical Iranian officials.

Israeli attacks person continued contempt a US-brokered “ceasefire” successful April. Now, contempt the US-Iran memorandum of knowing (MoU), they are continuing.

In a connection connected Friday, Israel’s subject said attacks connected confederate Lebanon overnight, which person continued done the morning, were a effect to Hezbollah’s “repeated violations of the ceasefire”.

Hezbollah acknowledged attacks connected Israeli subject positions wrong Lebanon. Soon after, the Israeli subject announced that 4 of its soldiers had been killed during combat successful Lebanon.

Netanyahu’s governmental ally, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right Israeli nationalist information minister, said “all of Lebanon indispensable burn.

“With each owed respect to the Americans, Israel indispensable marque it wide to the full satellite that the humor of our sons and the information of our citizens are not forfeit,” Ben-Gvir wrote successful a station connected X, adding that, successful the region, you needed to “go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror”.

A antheral smokes a cigaret arsenic helium stands with a comparative astatine his house, damaged by an Israeli aerial strike, portion they look astatine neighbouring houses that were destroyed. The men returned to their colony aft being displaced by the war, pursuing the woody betwixt the US and Iran, successful Qlailieh, Tyre district, Lebanon, June 18, 2026 [Zohra Bensemra/Reuters]

What does the bid statement accidental astir Lebanon?

The archetypal clause of the MoU signed by the US and Iran connected Wednesday this week addresses the question of Lebanon.

The US and Iran person agreed to the “immediate and imperishable termination of subject operations connected each fronts, including successful Lebanon”, it states.

Additionally, it says, some sides volition perpetrate to ensuring the “territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”.

However, determination is nary notation of Israel successful the MoU astatine all, leaving mentation of this clause wide open, experts say.

Given that the statement is solely betwixt the US and Iran – Israel and Hezbollah are not signatories – it is unclear however a ceasefire successful Lebanon would beryllium implemented, oregon whether it means Iran indispensable halt backing Hezbollah.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has noted that Tehran “does not abstracted the United States and the Israeli regime”, adding that it is the work of the US to guarantee Israel respects commitments made nether the memorandum.

How has Israel responded to the US-Iran agreement?

There is fury successful Israel implicit the woody – and governmental allies and absorption alike are circling Prime Minister Netanyahu implicit it.

Moreover, Israel was reportedly neither privy to negotiations nor allowed to reappraisal the substance earlier it was signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian connected Wednesday.

Netanyahu has said “the conflict is not implicit yet,” and “Israel inactive faces further challenges,” noting that the subject would not retreat from occupied Lebanese land.

Israel “will reconstruct information to the north”, and this requires “maintaining the information portion successful confederate Lebanon”, from which Israel volition not retreat “as agelong arsenic Israel’s information needs necessitate it”, Netanyahu said.

On Monday, Defence Minister Israel Katz said successful a statement: “Netanyahu and I are pursuing a wide argumentation nether which the [military] volition stay successful the information zones successful Lebanon, Syria and Gaza for an unlimited play of clip successful bid to support the borderline and Israeli communities from determination against jihadist elements.”

These statements travel against the backdrop of simmering tensions betwixt Washington and Israel.

At the G7 acme successful France, Trump criticised Netanyahu’s bombing tactics successful Lebanon that person led to ample numbers of civilian casualties.

He told reporters from the sidelines of the acme that Israel had been warring Hezbollah “too agelong and excessively galore radical are being killed”.

“You don’t person to sound down an flat location each clip you’re looking for idiosyncratic due to the fact that there’s a batch of radical successful those flat houses – and they’re not each Hezbollah,” helium said.

Vice President Vance besides lashed retired astatine Israeli furniture ministers for speaking retired against the woody connected Thursday. “What is your nonstop proposal? You’re a state of 9 cardinal people. You can’t conscionable termination your mode retired of solving each azygous nationalist information occupation that you have,” helium said, addressing Israeli leaders.

Women carrying a kid locomotion past a mural depicting erstwhile Hezbollah person Hassan Nasrallah and different elder figures, connected the time Hezbollah main Naim Qassem delivers a televised speech, adjacent the burial tract of Hassan Nasrallah connected the outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon, June 17, 2026 [Mohamed Azakir/Reuters]

Could Israel torpedo the bid deal?

Ali Vaez, manager of the Iran Project astatine the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the onus is present connected US President Trump to “decide whether helium wants the MoU to basal oregon not”.

“If helium wants the woody to survive, helium has to workout American leverage, not conscionable to reprimand Netanyahu, but to unit him to halt the warfare successful Lebanon,” helium said.

From Tehran’s perspective, Vaez said, “if [Trump] is unwilling oregon incapable to rein Netanyahu in, nary woody with the US is worthy the insubstantial it is written on.”

Tahani Mustafa, a visiting chap connected the Middle East and North Africa programme astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations, said “the MoU does not needfully warrant that Israel is going to behave oregon not effort to torpedo the process, particularly fixed the tensions betwixt the US and Israel,” successful summation to home unit connected Netanyahu, who faces nationalist elections by October this year.

“It [Israel] could good effort to torpedo this [deal], and we’ve seen successful the past wherever Israel has been defiant contempt what the US has often tried to benignant of propulsion it towards,” she told Al Jazeera.

The lone happening that tin warrant further negotiations to unafraid the woody “is serious, hard unit connected Israel – but Washington has shown that it truly doesn’t person the governmental volition to bash that”, she added.

That leaves keeping the bid talks connected way down to Iran, “even if that means Israel’s bombing of Lebanon continues, which it astir apt will”, Mustafa noted.

Vaez of Crisis Group, however, said continued killings successful Lebanon would rapidly unravel the negotiations.

“Iran mightiness beryllium capable to spend to delink Lebanon astatine immoderate constituent down the road, but not erstwhile the ink isn’t afloat adust connected the MoU,” helium concluded.