Can the Green Party’s Polanski take on Labour and win Starmer’s old seat?

When Britain’s erstwhile Prime Minister Keir Starmer stood down arsenic the subordinate of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras this week, helium ended much than a decennary representing a spot that has ne'er elected anyone but a Labour MP since it was established successful 1983.

The by-election it triggered which is expected aboriginal this twelvemonth would ordinarily beryllium a formality, but instead, it has go the astir intimately watched contention of the parliamentary term.

Recommended Stories

• list 1 of 4Russia warns it could people UK successful effect to Kyiv firing British missiles
• list 2 of 4Burnham’s expected UK prohibition connected Israeli colony goods draws wide support
• list 3 of 4Far-right UK provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos detained by ICE successful US
• list 4 of 4US says far-right provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos has been deported to UK

That is due to the fact that Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, the self-styled “eco-populist”, who has taken his enactment from the margins to double-digit polling successful a year, announced connected Thursday that helium volition question information for the seat. He present needs to beryllium chosen by section enactment members arsenic the Green campaigner for the seat.

Voting records connection him some encouragement and a warning.

Starmer won 48.9 per cent of the ballot successful 2024; the Greens finished 3rd connected 10.4 per cent, down a pro-Palestinian independent, Andrew Feinstein.

But successful the Camden assembly elections successful May, the borough the constituency is in, the Greens won 28.8 percent crossed its wards to Labour’s 38.8, taking seats successful Starmer’s ain spot for the archetypal time.

Al Jazeera spoke to governmental scientists and predetermination analysts astir whether Polanski has a realistic way to Westminster.

Outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer arsenic helium leaves 10 Downing Street, July 20, 2026 [Kin Cheung/AP]

A Green triumph would beryllium a ‘surprise’

Since Polanski became Green Party person a twelvemonth ago, it has achieved immoderate occurrence successful taking enactment from Labour’s left.

That includes a astonishment by-election triumph successful Greater Manchester, portion the enactment is presently polling arsenic precocious arsenic 20 percent nationally.

Despite the Green Party’s caller results successful Camden, experts accidental that Holborn and St Pancras is simply a beardown Labour seat.

“A Green triumph would beryllium a surprise,” Jonathan Tonge, prof of authorities astatine the University of Liverpool, told Al Jazeera.

For that to change, helium said, the existent premier curate and Labour leader, Andy Burnham, would person to spot his “honeymoon period” extremity quickly. A “disastrous budget” connected October 28 could bash conscionable that, helium added.

He besides said the timing of the by-election is key.

“If Burnham has a bully enactment league successful Liverpool (in precocious September), the honeymoon should proceed until that fund astatine least; the aboriginal the by-election, the trickier for Labour. They volition privation a speedy contest.”

Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham [File: Jack Taylor/AFP]

Burnham came to powerfulness aft 9 years arsenic politician of Greater Manchester and arrived untainted by scandals.

To galore Britons, it felt refreshing, aft Starmer’s assignment of Peter Mandelson arsenic ambassador to Washington – contempt his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

In an August YouGov survey, 46 percent of Britons had a favourable sentiment of Burnham.

In opposition to Starmer’s lawyerly caution, Burnham brings a much down-to-earth, outsider benignant that seeks to chopped done Westminster politics, an attack that Polanski has echoed.

Polanski’s past astatine play

Polanski’s critics person said helium would look parachuted in, portion helium says helium has lived and worked successful the country for years.

Polanski told Camden New Journal, “I person lived and worked successful this assemblage implicit galore years. I cognize it well, and I emotion it”.

“It represents truthful galore of the things that marque London truthful special. I americium truthful excited by the imaginable of representing this spot successful Parliament,” helium is quoted arsenic saying.

But Tonge said Polanski is seen “as excessively left-wing by immoderate voters who similar the safer Labour option”.

The alleged “Burnham bounce” Labour is revelling successful whitethorn besides hamper Polanski’s chances, helium said.

The Green leader’s governmental past whitethorn besides basal successful his way, John McTernan, governmental caput to erstwhile Prime Minister Tony Blair, told Al Jazeera, pointing retired that Polanski archetypal stood successful the constituency successful 2015 arsenic a Liberal Democrat, winning 96 votes successful a Camden assembly by-election.

He besides had to apologise earlier this twelvemonth implicit a assembly taxation contented connected his houseboat, with a Green Party spokesperson saying: “Zack apologises sincerely for the unintentional mistake”.

He aboriginal admitted helium had not voted successful May’s section election, saying helium had been moving and “fell abbreviated of time” to registry astatine his caller address.

Zack Polanski congratulates Zoe Garbett arsenic she is elected the caller Mayor for Hackney successful London, May 8, 2026 [Leon Neal/Getty]

Greens whitethorn person ‘peaked’: Expert

The Greens person ne'er been present before. From 2010 to 2024, they had conscionable 1 MP.

That changed successful February erstwhile the Greens won the Gorton and Denton by-election. Hannah Spencer, a section plumber and Green councillor, won 40.7 per cent of the ballot successful an country Labour had represented since 1931.

It marked the Greens’ first-ever parliamentary by-election win, their highest by-election ballot stock by a borderline of 30 points. The triumph ushered successful their archetypal MP successful the northbound of England.

In May, crossed London, they went from 18 assembly seats to 279, taking six boroughs and winning their archetypal straight elected mayors successful Hackney and Lewisham, portion Labour recorded its worst London section effect since 1968. Nationally, the enactment won 587 seats, its highest ever.

The Greens person momentum connected their broadside but whitethorn person “peaked”, said Tonge.

McTernan said Polanski should beryllium wary of conflating this year’s successes with grounds of his ain popularity. He should alternatively spot them arsenic dissatisfaction with Starmer and a “message sent by progressive voters” that they didn’t privation him.

The August YouGov survey besides shows that conscionable 19 percent of Britons present person a favourable sentiment of Polanski, down 7 points from his highest successful April.

McTernan said putting Polanski guardant whitethorn hamper the Greens arsenic “by-elections often punish candidates perceived arsenic focused connected their ain self-importance”.

He pointed to Clacton, wherever Nigel Farage, person of the far-right, anti-immigration enactment Reform UK, resigned his spot successful July amid scrutiny of his finances and past recontested it.

With the main parties boycotting that election, the satirical campaigner Count Binface, a comedian who campaigns wearing a bin connected his head, took 26.7 percent of the vote, the highest stock ever won by a novelty campaigner successful a British parliamentary election.