Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz?

Tehran, Iran – With Iran’s confederate ports taxable to a United States naval blockade, Tehran is looking for alternatives to export lipid and import goods. The Caspian Sea connected Iran’s bluish seashore is seen arsenic 1 portal for Iran to the extracurricular world.

Recent efforts astatine the United Nations to extremity the deadlock betwixt Iran and the US look to person failed arsenic US President Donald Trump said Tehran’s connection to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was unacceptable.

With nary breakthrough successful show connected ending the warfare launched by the US and Israel connected Iran connected February 28, Tehran is making adjustments to export lipid and import indispensable goods. But maritime commercialized via the Caspian Sea has its ain logistical challenges, experts said.

Caspian challenges

The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest landlocked assemblage of water, is shared by Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Shipping connected the oversea has been progressively challenged by declining h2o levels successful caller years.

In April, UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said Caspian h2o levels had dropped by astir 2 metres (6.6ft) since the 1990s. Sea levels are projected to recede by an further 8 to 21 metres (26ft to 69ft) by the extremity of the century.

Shahram Fadakar, manager wide of the Iranian Department of Environment’s Office for Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Protection, told section media past week that h2o levels person been dropping by much than 20cm (7.9 inches) annually implicit the past 2 to 3 years. This could impact commercialized betwixt each Caspian countries, including Iran.

This month, Masoud Polmeh, secretary-general of the Shipping Association of Iran, told state-linked media that Iran’s bluish ports could erstwhile grip berth vessels weighing up to 6,000 tonnes. Due to reduced h2o levels, they tin present grip lone 4,000-tonne vessels.

Iranian ships entering the Caspian Sea via Russia’s Volga River person go stuck owed to debased h2o levels, sometimes remaining stationary for days and weeks astatine a clip earlier their crews are rescued.

“Fortunately, that hasn’t happened successful our ports,” Polmeh added.

Northern bound

The immense bulk of Iran’s maritime commercialized has been conducted via its confederate ports, but the US naval embargo and aerial strikes connected infrastructure are forcing Tehran to displacement commercialized to the Caspian Sea and its onshore borders.

While determination are presently nary progressive subject attacks against interests successful the north, Vali Kaleji, an autarkic writer and researcher successful Iran connected Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, said changes successful logistical operations person enactment immense strains connected Iran’s onshore borders.

At the Norduz borderline crossing with Armenia, arsenic galore arsenic 1,800 trucks queue for respective days astatine a clip to participate Iran. At different terminals, hold times scope from 10 to 15 days to participate Iran though Kaleji said this is not owed solely to freight shifting to Iran’s roads.

“Limited terminal capacity, customs procedures, roadworthy infrastructure and ongoing operation projects person besides contributed to the congestion. Meanwhile, sanctions connected Iranian airlines and the resulting influx of passengers towards Iran’s onshore borders with Armenia and Turkey person further exacerbated problems astatine the borderline terminals,” Kaleji told Al Jazeera.

The eastbound Caspian obstruction way provides a transportation for transporting Iranian cargo to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and China. But Iran’s obstruction freight connections with the South Caucasus region, which were severed during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War from 1988 to 1994, stay closed.

“The revival of the Julfa-Nakhchivan railway route, portion of the Soviet-era railway web successful the South Caucasus, besides depends connected the bid process betwixt Armenia and Azerbaijan, peculiarly the implementation of the TRIPP project,” Kaleji said, referring to a US-supported transit corridor successful the region.

“Since a large stock of transit and commercialized on the occidental way of the North-South Transport Corridor takes spot done this route, the lack of a railway transportation betwixt Iran and the South Caucasus remains a large obstacle to accelerating and expanding the measurement of commercialized and transit, peculiarly nether conditions of intensified maritime blockade successful the south.”

Trade obstacles

Iranian authorities person not provided details connected which commodities and astatine what measurement commercialized has been directed northwards, including to the Caspian ports of Anzali, Amirabad and Nowshahr. But determination person been indications of specified a shift, peculiarly with the import of indispensable goods, specified arsenic food.

Last month, Ports and Maritime Organization main Mohammad Shakibi-Nasab told state-linked media that Iran’s full nominal larboard capableness was 300 cardinal tonnes, lone 30 cardinal tonnes of which is linked to its bluish ports.

The bluish ports’ stock of indispensable goods transport has gone up from 18 percent successful the years earlier the US-Israel warfare connected Iran to 30 percent today.

There are stark differences betwixt maximum loads carried by vessels utilizing Iran’s bluish and confederate ports, helium said. One vas successful the southbound could perchance transportation the cargo of 20 ships travelling connected the Caspian Sea.

In aboriginal September, Hadi Haghshenas, the politician of the bluish state of Gilan, said instrumentality arrivals astatine Caspian ports had accrued by 50 percent year-on-year during the 5 Iranian calendar months that ended connected August 22.

He besides said, dissimilar the Port of Shahid Rajaei successful confederate Iran, the bluish ports were person to large cities successful cardinal Iran, specified arsenic Tehran, Isfahan and Arak. That proximity could assistance bring down onshore transport costs for imports reaching extremity users.

The China-Aktau-northern Iran route, which takes cargo by obstruction from China crossed Kazakhstan to Aktau, past by vessel to Caspian ports and into Iran by road, could grow determination trade, Haghshenas added.

The Iranian authorities is trying to implicit the missing sections of the Rasht-Astara railway, a strategically important task with Russia.

This would implicit the occidental obstruction subdivision of the International North-South Transport Corridor, which passes done Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.

Ships are seen anchored successful the Strait of Hormuz connected August 10, 2026, disconnected Bandar Abbas, Iran [Ali Saeedi/Getty Images]

Russian reliance

Tehran’s northwards displacement risks an overreliance connected Russia arsenic a trading spouse and vulnerability to the vulnerabilities of sanctions that person travel with Moscow’s warfare connected Ukraine.

US media person reported that Russia has sent drone components and explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea. There person besides been claims that immoderate transferred Russian exertion whitethorn beryllium aimed astatine helping Iran make precocious supersonic cruise missiles.

Iranian and Russian authorities person said they privation to grow their subject practice but did not remark connected the latest media reports.

While Iran’s Caspian portion has been little heavy targeted successful US-Israeli attacks, Ukraine did onslaught what Tehran said was an Iranian sportfishing vessel successful July, sidesplitting 1 civilian. Ukraine said it was a Russian subject vessel carrying subject cargo to Iran.

The information that some Russia and Iran are sanctioned and astatine warfare could complicate commercialized betwixt the 2 countries via the Caspian route.

“Integration with Russian infrastructure adds disruption problems due to the fact that it is being targeted by Ukraine, and that includes civilian retailers,” Ezana Tedla, an expert astatine the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, told Al Jazeera.

“Beyond the existing infrastructure, there’s besides the well-established diaspora and idiosyncratic networks passim confederate routes, particularly successful the UAE, that assistance Iran’s commercialized instrumentality place.”

Urmia Lake successful northwestern Iran astir dried up past twelvemonth owed to drought and ecological mismanagement, specified arsenic dam operation [File: Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images]

With imports fundamentally blocked via Iran’s confederate ports, authorities said barley, maize, wheat and oilseeds are priorities for bluish ports.

Tedla said astir of Iran’s northern-bound exports are airy goods similar processed nutrient and packaging materials. Iran does not person the larboard infrastructure and vessels to importantly measurement up imports via the Caspian.

While determination was a tiny summation successful the stock of northern-bound exports successful past years, this inclination has plateaued since 2023.

“Iran’s invaluable exports are directed towards the southbound and are successful heavy, bulk commodities similar mineral fuels and oils and robust ore, which are the easiest to person to hard currency,” Tedla said.

“Finally, it is not wide that adjacent if the larboard infrastructure was expanded, the marketplace would beryllium determination arsenic Iran’s bluish neighbours person their ain hydrocarbon and metallic industries that volition overlap.”