Brave New World’s Box Office Projection Is Brutally Less Compared to the Last Chris Evans Captain America Movie

SUMMARY

• Captain America: Brave New World is set to face tough competition in the box office race.
• The film marks a pivotal shift, with Anthony Mackie taking over the mantle from Chris Evans as Sam Wilson.
• Early box-office projections suggest a more modest performance than Captain America: Civil War.

Sometimes, you gotta go through the hardest battles to earn your place in the sun. While Captain America might be famous for wielding a shield and fighting for justice, the upcoming Captain America: Brave New World is about to face a different kind of battle—one that doesn’t involve fighting Hydra but rather the high expectations of its predecessors and the shifting dynamics of the Marvel universe.

Anthony Mackie in Captain America: Brave New World | Marvel Studios

Let’s get this out of the way: Captain America: Brave New World is certainly set to make waves when it hits theaters. But, while fans will no doubt flock to theaters in droves for the February release, early box-office projections are showing that this sequel might not reach the same stratospheric heights as Captain America: Civil War.

Captain America: Brave New World’s Modest Box Office Projections

Let’s talk numbers. While Captain America: Brave New World has earned its place on the Most Anticipated Films of 2025 list (see CBR), early box-office projections paint a much more modest picture than fans might hope.

According to Box Office Theory, the upcoming sequel is predicted to earn between $81 million and $107 million on its opening weekend. For comparison, Deadpool & Wolverine raked in $211 million, and Captain America: Civil War—remember that gem?—made a whopping $179 million domestically on its opening weekend. It’s clear that the anticipation for Brave New World isn’t quite the same as for its predecessor.

In total, the film is expected to gross anywhere between $195 million and $280 million during its entire run in North America. 

Chris Evans retired as Captain America after Avengers: Endgame | Credit: Marvel Studios

The biggest shake-up in Brave New World is the transition of the Captain America mantle to Sam Wilson, played by Anthony Mackie. While the shift is exciting, it also brings an air of uncertainty. Sam is no longer just the Falcon—he’s stepping into a role that Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers made legendary.

And while Sam is undoubtedly skilled, his reliance on intellect and strategic thinking rather than raw strength is a departure from the super-soldier persona we’ve come to associate with the title of Captain America. It’s a bold move, but it’s also one that audiences may take some time to get used to.

Plus, this time, Sam isn’t alone. He’ll be facing off against none other than the new U.S. President, Thaddeus E. “Thunderbolt” Ross (played by Harrison Ford), who has a few secrets of his own—like his transformation into the Red Hulk. The drama, intrigue, and tension build, but so do the questions. Will audiences be on board with this fresh take? Or will they pine for the familiar comfort of the Steve Rogers era? Let’s see!

Can Brave New World Overcome Early Setbacks and Live Up to Marvel’s High Expectations?

Anthony Mackie in Captain America: Brave New World | Marvel Studios

Like all blockbuster superhero movies, Captain America: Brave New World has its own set of challenges to overcome. There were reports of mixed feedback during its test screenings, which sparked concerns, though reshoots—especially for superhero flicks—are not all that unusual. The film also serves as a continuation of the Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, meaning the stakes are already high in terms of both narrative and fan expectations.

Still, with a star-studded cast that includes Anthony Mackie, Tim Blake Nelson, Liv Tyler, Giancarlo Esposito, and Danny Ramirez, there’s more than enough star power to keep audiences intrigued. Also, sources say Mackie is in line to pocket a cool $10 million for the film.

Let’s see what fans are saying:

Civil war had everyone Deadpool had Hugh jackman. Captain 4 about to stand on business.

So… Disney will be lucky to ONLY lose $75 million at the box office? 🫣

In comparison to Winter Soldier (96 milly) this is great.

Umm I am going to say that as a big no no one asked for this no one wants this maybe I am wrong but we will see

Tickets haven't even gone on sales yet how they are projecting these Estimates, This is completely Wrong

Brave New World will no doubt have its audience, and there’s every reason to believe it’ll do well at the box office. But is it enough to compete with the massive opening weekends that Marvel has come to expect? The numbers suggest it might fall short of Captain America: Civil War’s monumental success. Still, as we know from Marvel, there’s always room for a twist.

Captain America: Brave New World hits theatres on February 14, 2025.

Captain America: Civil War is streaming on Disney+. 

Written by Siddhika Prajapati

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