B.C. United's 'unprecedented' collapse clears field for general election

Leader Kevin Falcon suspended his party's campaign and urged 'all free-enterprise voters to come together' to defeat the NDP

Published Aug 28, 2024  •  4 minute read

B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon appears at a press conference with Conservative Party leader John Rustad. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

It remains to be seen how much B.C. United Leader Kevin Falcon and Conservative Leader John Rustad’s bid to unite the province’s political right to defeat Premier David Eby’s NDP government will resonate with voters, according to some analysts.

On Wednesday, Falcon announced he would step down, suspend United’s campaign and urged “all free-enterprise voters to come together” to defeat the NDP.

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“It’s a huge development to be sure,” said political scientist Hamish Telford. “(But) it remains to be seen if it’s going to have a huge effect on the election.”

The decision does change the campaign for the NDP, taking away the potential for vote-splitting on the right to defeat their opponents in key ridings, but Telford said the party had already adjusted its sights on the Conservatives as their clear, obvious opponent.

Hamish Telford, associate professor, political science, University of the Fraser Valley, 2018. PNG

However, Telford, a professor in political science at the University of the Fraser Valley, noted that the support that remained with the United were the “hard core supporters of the party” that were unconvinced by either the NDP or Conservatives.

“Now that their party is no longer in the race, it’s to be determined which way they go,” he said. “And it might be equal parts to the B.C. Conservatives, the NDP and not voting.”

The Green party will remain an attractive alternative in its hotbed of support around Victoria, but “I don’t think the Greens are going to make a big breakthrough up the middle.”

Falcon’s decision comes four months after the United and Conservatives hit an impasse over a potential merger, so to Telford, events look like a “B.C. Conservatives liquidation sale.”

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“(The Conservatives) would have had to make compromises if they had organized something earlier, and now I don’t think they do,” Telford said.

READ MORE: B.C. United drops out of election race in deal with B.C. Conservatives | Tuesday, Kevin Falcon blasted the B.C. Conservatives. Wednesday, he joined them

From the NDP’s perspective, Telford said there are likely some supporters regretting Eby’s decision not to call an early election.

“There are certainly going to be no easy pickups for the NDP, now they’re going to be losing seats rather than picking them up,” Telford said. “(Now) it’s whether they can sort of stem the damage and hold on to a majority.”

The decision does solidify the electoral situation in regions outside of the Lower Mainland, said pollster Mario Canseco.

“We’ve seen the Conservatives really getting the support of the B.C. Liberals from 2020 in Northern B.C., in the Fraser Valley,” said Canseco, president of the polling firm Research Co. “Parts of southern British Columbia were more of a toss up, (but) now you have the opportunity to coalesce around (the right).”

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Canseco added that Falcon’s decision “speaks to the way in which the province has always been run.”

“This is usually the way in which it goes,” he said. “You have the NDP at around 40 per cent, right now they’re at 41 per cent, and you have your centre right option close to that or a little bit higher.”

Mario Canseco, 2018. Photo by Nick Procaylo /PNG

Right now, the Conservatives benefit from the extraordinary popularity of the federal Conservatives in B.C., which have a higher level of support under Pierre Poilievre than former prime minister Stephen Harper ever achieved, Canseco said.

However, “it’s not as if we had a clear front-runner before,” Canseco said. “There’s a chance that they’re seen differently now.”

The pollster added that while Rustad has attracted a lot of candidates that would have been definite B.C. Liberal contenders in previous elections, he still has to roll out a platform that gets voters “to imagine the province if it were run by John Rustad.”

“What’s required is establishing an emotional connection with voters,” Canseco said.

At the end of the day, Falcon’s decision represents a meltdown that has some parallels in B.C. politics, but it is a shocking end to a movement whose ancestors are in former Premier Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberal electoral juggernaut.

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“What died today was born of a party that won 77 of 79 seats in 2001,” said pollster Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute. “I think it’s a reminder of no matter how big, how powerful, how indestructible a political movement can be in British Columbia, there is also a finite aspect to these movements.”

In a way, Kurl said B.C. United’s departure is like the end of the Social Credit party in 1991 with the resignation of Bill Vander Zalm and the party’s subsequent defeat. Telford, however, said the United situation does stand alone.

“I’ve been studying politics in Canada for 40 years in this country and I’ve never seen a party anywhere in the country throw in the towel just before an election,” Telford said.

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