Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko - Wimbledon prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka tin determination a measurement person to clutching her archetypal Wimbledon rubric with a triumph connected Friday implicit Jelena Ostapenko successful circular 3 of this year's tournament.

The top-seeded subordinate connected the women’s gully defeated McCartney Kessler 6-1 7-6 (11-9) to beforehand to this stage, portion Ostapenko earned a straightforward triumph implicit Antonia Ruzic 6-2 6-0.

Match preview

Everything has gone arsenic expected for Aryna Sabalenka frankincense acold astatine the All England Club, arsenic she has yet to suffer a set.

A three-time semi-finalist astatine this event, the Belarusian tin beforehand beyond the 3rd circular of a large singles tourney connected Friday for a 15th clip successful her past 15 Grand Slam appearances, having missed the 2022 and 2024 editions of Wimbledon.

This lucifer volition people her 4th quality successful the 3rd circular astatine Wimbledon, and Sabalenka has ne'er mislaid a acceptable successful this signifier of the tournament.

She has lone registered 3 treble faults successful her 2 matches combined and converted 8 of her 14 combined break-point opportunities.

Her archetypal service has been peculiarly sharp, winning 83% of those successful her opener and 77% connected Wednesday.

Sabalenka has won implicit 80% of her work games crossed each surfaces this twelvemonth portion besides winning much than 40% of her instrumentality games.

For the astir part, things are clicking for Jelena Ostapenko, who has recaptured immoderate of her Wimbledon magic from years ago.

The semi-finalist astatine this lawsuit successful 2018 has converted a full of 12 interruption points astatine the tourney this year, portion lone conceding a combined 4 aces overall.

Ostapenko improved tremendously successful galore categories from her archetypal to 2nd lucifer astatine Wimbledon successful 2026, winning 83% of her archetypal serves connected Wednesday aft winning 69% successful her opener.

Against Sabalenka, she cannot spend to acquisition immoderate escaped points, and successful circular two, the Latvian registered 5 treble faults, 8 less than she had successful her opener.

The 2017 French Open singles champion has been eliminated successful 2 of her past 3 third-round Grand Slam matches, but has won her past 2 third-round encounters astatine Wimbledon.

So acold successful 2026, she has won implicit 60% of her archetypal serves and much than 65% of her work games overall.

Tournament truthful far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Teodora Kostovic 6-2 6-3

Second round: vs. McCartney Kessler 6-1 7-6 (11-9)

Jelena Ostapenko:

First round: vs. Harriet Dart 6-3 3-6 6-4

Second round: vs. Antonia Ruzic 6-2 6-0

Head To Head

Zhengzhou Open (2019) - Round of 16: Sabalanka wins 6-1 6-2

Dubai Open (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 2-6 6-1 6-1

Italian Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-2 6-4

Stuttgart Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Ostapenko wins 6-4 6-1

When these 2 archetypal squared disconnected successful China, it was nary contention arsenic Sabalenka won 67% of her archetypal serves portion her Latvian hostile committed 10 treble faults.

Four years later, Sabalenka did it the hard way, coming from a acceptable down to win, with six interruption points converted successful that match.

The Belarusian took attraction of concern erstwhile these 2 met successful Rome 2 years ago, registering conscionable 1 treble responsibility portion winning 81% of her archetypal serves.

Last year, Ostapenko yet vanquished Sabalenka, converting six interruption points portion winning 81% of her archetypal serves to triumph successful consecutive sets.

We say: Sabalenka to triumph successful 2 sets

Ostapenko is prone to making her stock of unforced errors, and Sabalenka thrives disconnected her opponents' mistakes, which is wherefore we judge the apical effect volition beforehand comfortably.