Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka’s bid for her archetypal WTA Finals rubric begins against Jasmine Paolini connected Sunday, arsenic she aims for different triumph implicit the Italian No. 1.

The Belarusian has beaten Paolini successful 4 of their erstwhile encounters, including astatine the year-end tourney 12 months ago, and is the wide favourite entering their eighth gathering connected the women’s tour. 

Match preview

Sabalenka has been the No. 1 subordinate for an full year, and she volition decorativeness the play astatine the apical of the women's rankings.

However, the WTA Finals rubric continues to elude her, having been runner-up to Caroline Garcia successful 2022 and eliminated successful the semi-finals successful the past 2 years.

Entering her 5th year-end tournament, Sabalenka has not exited aboriginal since her debut successful 2021, and she is not expected to permission Riyadh prematurely this time.

The women's starring player's mentation was bittersweet: she retained the US Open crown, defeating Amanda Anisimova successful New York, but precocious fell to Jessica Pegula successful Wuhan, losing her clasp connected the WTA 1000 lawsuit aft 20 consecutive wins and 3 consecutive titles.

The 27-year-old enters Sunday with a 59-11 grounds for the season, but is the favourite to unafraid her 60th triumph astatine Paolini's expense. 

The communicative of the Italian No. 1 implicit the past 24 months remains tremendously admirable, having astir emerged from obscurity to go a top-10 subordinate and a regular subordinate astatine the starring events.

At 28, she became the second-oldest subordinate aft Li Na to debut astatine the year-end lawsuit successful 2024, and the Italian prima returns this year, aiming to spell 1 measurement further.

Having defeated Elena Rybakina successful her first-ever Finals match, Paolini's 2 losses to Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng meant she could not scope the semi-finals successful Riyadh.

Twelve months later, the 29-year-old aims to debar past year's result and yet advancement from the Steffi Graf Group.

A commendable Asian plaything saw the erstwhile satellite No. 4 scope the quarter-finals successful Beijing and the semi-finals successful Wuhan and Ningbo, improving her play grounds to 46-18.

A 47th triumph seems unlikely, fixed Sabalenka's dominance, but it remains to beryllium seen if Paolini displays thing antithetic against the starring subordinate connected the women's circuit this time.

Head To Head

Stuttgart (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-5 6-4 

Miami (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-2

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 7-6(4)

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paolini 2-6 6-3 6-3

Linz (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4

Ilkley (2017) - Round of 32: Paolini 4-6 7-5 7-6(2)

Having defeated Sabalenka successful 2 of their archetypal 3 encounters, Sabalenka has won 4 consecutive matches to pb Paolini 5-2 crossed each tours.

Even much intriguing is the Belarusian winning those matches successful consecutive sets, including past year's round-robin lucifer successful Riyadh.

While Paolini has defeated the 27-year-old connected writer and hard courts, nary person occurred successful the past 3 years, highlighting the satellite No. 1's emergence and her presumption arsenic the starring subordinate connected the women's tour.

We say: Sabalenka to triumph successful 2 sets

Paolini volition request to play high-quality tennis passim to bushed Sabalenka, but this matchup favours the Belarusian. 

The Italian No. 1 is improbable to outpower the WTA Tour’s starring subordinate oregon decision her with unpredictable shot-making, indicating different comfy two-set victory.

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