Are we headed for an election? Three things that have changed since Jagmeet Singh ripped up his deal with the Liberals

What you need to know about the new 'normal' in the House of Commons

Published Sep 04, 2024  •  3 minute read

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a meeting in November 2019. Photo by SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES

OTTAWA — NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh notified Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday that he was pulling out of the confidence-and-supply agreement (CASA) propping up the Liberal minority government, putting and end to three years of formal cooperation between the parties.

Singh’s bombshell announcement puts federal politics into a brave new world but fear not, dear reader, we have you covered.

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Here are three things you need to know about our post-CASA times.

A packed fall election calendar could get even more crowded

Three provinces — British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan — will be holding elections in October. Americans will head to the polls shortly thereafter, on Nov. 5, to elect the next president of the United States.

Wednesday’s news increases the odds of yet another fall election, at least according to the online predictions market. Traders on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket were especially bullish about the prospect of a fall election on Friday afternoon.

After opening the day at a meagre five cents, a Polymarket listing for a fall election surged to 59 cents minutes after the NDP’s 1 p.m. ET announcement, indicating a 59 per cent chance of a federal election before the end of 2024. The ‘irrational exuberance’ of bettors calmed down somewhat later in the afternoon, with the listing price settling around the 10 cent mark at close — still a doubling from the start of the day.

‘No-confidence’ the new normal?

For a fall election to take place, the Trudeau government would have to either petition the Governor General to dissolve Parliament or fall on a confidence vote.

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If the latter were to happen, Justin Trudeau would become the eighth prime minister in Canada’s history, and third in a row, to be defeated by a vote of no confidence.

Paul Martin was forced to call an election after falling on an opposition-triggered confidence motion in late 2005. The same fate befell Martin’s successor, Stephen Harper in the spring of 2011, when his Conservative minority government was found to be in contempt of Parliament for hoarding documents relating to treatment of Afghan detainees. Harper had the last laugh, winning a long-awaited majority in the subsequent election.

Justin Trudeau would also be the second Trudeau to fall in such a manner. Father Pierre plunged Canada into an election in 1974 when he failed to pass a spring budget. It was later revealed that he tanked the budget vote on purpose in a successful gambit to engineer a majority government.

Lucky number ’13’

With 154 of 334 sitting MPs in their caucus, the Liberals will now have to cobble together 13 opposition votes to get to a bare majority of 167 on a vote-to-vote basis. The speaker (currently Greg Fergus) traditionally casts a tiebreaking vote to “keep the debate going” (in other words, to prevent the government of the day from falling.)

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There are currently four vacant seats. Depending on how the upcoming byelections go, the Liberals’ magic number could fall anywhere between 11 and 15.

The three MPs who currently sit as independents, Han Dong, Alain Reyes and Kevin Vuong, could find themselves in the spotlight in the event of a nail-biter.

Independent MP Chuck Cadman found himself thrust into this position in May 2005, taking a break from chemotherapy treatments to fly out to Ottawa and vote in favour of the Martin government’s budget. Cadman’s affirmative vote forced a tie that was subsequently broken by then-speaker Peter Milliken, keeping the government in power for the time being.

That was also Cadman’s final appearance in the House of Commons before his passing less than two months later.

Vuong told the National Post that the termination of the agreement won’t affect the way he votes as an independent MP.

“This latest NDP performance will have no impact on my work. My priorities and my votes have always been reflective of the will and best interests of my community, and they will continue to guide my work in the House of Commons,” Vuong said in an email.

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