An Alberta separatist and a former premier agree on one thing: Smith’s party is heading for a split

Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney participates in a fireside chat at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa on Friday, May 8, 2026. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /Postmedia

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OTTAWA — A separatist and a federalist walk into a Calgary event and leave with the same prediction about Alberta politics: Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party is headed for a split.

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On the “stay” side, former premier Jason Kenney and founder of the current United Conservative Party, which merged the former Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties. Kenney is also a member of the Postmedia board.

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On the “leave” side, Keith Wilson, an Alberta lawyer championing separation, well-known in recent years for representing central figures in the 2022 “Freedom Convoy” protests.

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Hosted by Calgary-based think-tank the Aristotle Foundation, the debate on Monday saw the two men lay out their arguments for staying and going, with Kenney saying the separatists “can’t be taken seriously” and lack any coherent plan to deal with the economic fallout that divorcing Canada would bring.

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Wilson countered by contending it was federalists who were lacking a plan to solve the longstanding frustrations Albertans have had in the federation, saying all their side offered was “fear” and advice to keep on fighting after decades of having done so.

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But on what it all means for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party, both men appeared to agree.

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“If we go into this spiral of massive division and uncertainty, the only political winner would be the Liberal Party of Canada,” Kenney told the crowd.

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He said he believes public opinion polls show the federal Liberals riding high in Alberta, an anomaly in the province, partly out of fear Kenney says has been stoked by the “secessionist movement,” coupled with the “rally around the flag effect” that helped elect Carney in the first place, in light of threats coming from U.S. President Donald Trump.

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“Provincially,” Kenney told Wilson, “this movement is going to split the governing conservative party right down the middle if this carries on.”

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He questioned how Alberta would be made any stronger by seeing more federal Liberals elected to Ottawa and having Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi as its next premier.

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Wilson did not disagree.

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“Albertans who are concerned and support independence understand we’re at an existential moment. They understand that this is a rare moment in time of convergence of opportunity and convergence of threat,” the separatist said.

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“If we’re not successful with independence, we know there’s likely to be a split in the (United Conservative Party), and the NDP is likely to be the next government.”

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That reality, Wilson continued, is why his movement must put in the work to persuade more to join their side.

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With Smith’s question asking Albertans whether they want a referendum about separating from Canada set for Oct. 19, both sides have less than 150 days to shore up support for staying or laying the groundwork to go.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney warned on Monday that those pushing for separation based on the idea that it gives them a negotiating advantage down the road were toying with a “very dangerous bluff.”