Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Key Takeaways
- Americans are relocating between states, likely driven by taxes, opportunities and lifestyle preferences — and employers must think carefully about whether that will help or hurt their ability to recruit and retain quality employees.
- Entrepreneurs should also pay attention to and evaluate existing employment trends. Job gains are mainly from the retail sector and ecommerce delivery, and concerns remain around a shrinking labor force.
- For employers struggling to compete for talent in shifting labor markets, flexible work arrangements may be the most practical way to access workers regardless of where they’ve relocated.
America is shifting. No, I’m not referring to underground seismic plate shifts caused by earthquakes. Individuals and families are relocating from one state to another in record numbers.
As an entrepreneur and employer, I am curious what the employment landscape will look like in five to ten years.
Americans love to move
Since its inception, Americans have sought opportunity in multiple ways. As the saying goes, people tend to “follow the money.” During the first few decades of our young country, America was largely a rural, agricultural-based economy. General Mills, Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo and Tyson Foods were not around. Neither was Publix, Kroger or Walmart. In other words, we had to grow our own food to survive.
From 1820 to the 1880s, the first major wave of immigrants arrived from Britain, Ireland, Germany and Italy, primarily settling in eastern coastal cities like Boston and New York, as well as southern cities such as Charleston and Savannah. Later, immigrants from Mexico and South America settled in Texas, California and the Southwest, while Asian immigrants arrived on the West Coast.
Interestingly, by the early 1970s, the foreign-born population in the U.S. hovered around 5%. Today, around 25% of people living in America were born on foreign soil. What will that number look like in 2050? Who knows.
However, the primary issue for entrepreneurs today is not foreign immigration; it’s actually domestic migration. Americans are relocating between states, likely driven by taxes, opportunities and lifestyle preferences. The question remains: Will I, and Ditto Transcripts, be able to recruit and retain quality employees here in Denver?
Employment data
The most recent IRS migration data from 2023 shows that high-tax states such as New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are losing residents.
As some states lose residents, others, such as Texas, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, are experiencing growth. While warmer climates and rural lifestyles may play a role, high taxes and burdensome regulations are likely the main factors.
Who are these people who are relocating to so-called greener pastures? Is a substantial portion of San Francisco’s homeless population giving U-Haul a call and moving to Nashville or Austin? Not quite. In fact, homeless populations are increasing in practically every major urban center.
No, the people moving fall into the middle-income to wealthy category. They are moving because they can maintain or improve their quality of life at a lower cost.
Some are relocating entire businesses, bringing dozens to thousands of jobs. Others move to work for expanding companies or in industries that offer higher earnings and better income retention.
Second quarter job numbers
Moving aside, entrepreneurs should also pay attention to and evaluate existing employment trends. The beginning of the second quarter of 2026 offers hopeful optimism. I believe the economy is performing at an average level. However, rising energy costs caused by Middle East tensions with Iran aren’t helping. According to the latest data, private-sector employment increased by 123,000, while government jobs declined. Even temporary workers saw a slight uptick.
However, don’t get too excited. Job gains were mainly from the retail sector and ecommerce delivery. Hospitality, leisure and healthcare gained, but fell below the normal levels seen in previous quarters. And then there are the weak sectors of the job market, such as nondurable goods, insurance, transportation and real estate. Real estate agents are leaving the industry due to slow home sales. Even the federal government has slowed over the past 15 months, most likely due to our President’s desire to employ fewer government workers.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, and initial weekly unemployment claims were low. However, the number of people forced to work part-time due to slack business conditions rose for the second month in a row. Also of concern is the decline in the labor force this year and a decline in employment reported by households. The government’s household survey is smaller than the payroll employment survey, so its reported decline is less cause for concern, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.
With all these statistics, the unemployment rate is still about 4.3%. Americans are also trying to boost income, with many workers seeking part-time opportunities. Nevertheless, the labor force seems to be shrinking, which should concern business owners.
It appears that the Federal Reserve will hold steady with a cooler labor market. The upside is that we probably won’t seek an interest rate rise either. The Feds’ mid-June meeting will give us some indication of their future direction.
Looking through my own crystal ball
My transcription company is unique. Outside of my core executive staff, my transcriptionists can live and work anywhere within the U.S. Frankly, I’m tired of reading how AI is displacing American workers. Has it happened in some sectors? Sure. Thankfully, AI isn’t replacing my human transcriptionists for one primary reason. AI cannot transcribe an audio file with 99% accuracy, which is what I promise my customers.
Fortunately, I’ve had success finding good employees for my small Denver-based executive team. That doesn’t mean that I’m not concerned about the local employee base, because I am. States that continue to promote a high-tax business environment concern me. As I mentioned previously, states such as Texas, Florida, Tennessee and South Carolina are attracting many new potential employees. Interestingly, three of the four have no state income tax.
The pandemic that began in 2020 definitely increased the number of remote workers. However, that was primarily driven by closed offices. Around 2023, CEOs started calling workers back to the office, which led some remote workers to revolt. Who doesn’t want to build spreadsheets in their pajamas while also doing a load of laundry?
Companies seeking to expand but facing difficulties may benefit from offering flexible work arrangements. Naturally, those seeking employment overwhelmingly prefer a remote or hybrid opportunity. The hybrid formula may help employers fill critical job roles that don’t require on-site performance. The most popular hybrid jobs are in IT, accounting, legal, marketing and customer support.
How can entrepreneurs benefit from a moving America?
With all this data in hand, the question remains: Can entrepreneurs benefit from a moving America? I don’t know, but time will tell.
One thing is clear. Americans are moving for lower taxes, warmer climates and more amenities. Hospitality jobs in these popular locations will obviously benefit. The problem is, are there enough workers interested in filling these roles?
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