All the ways the Alberta referendum could result in an October surprise

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Carney’s play was a Thanksgiving video, posed in a classroom at his Edmonton high school with a world map behind him, on a long-weekend holiday that was thematically useful.

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“It is a chance to give thanks for Canada,” he said. “This year, Thanksgiving is a bit different. A week from today, Albertans will have the opportunity to make an important decision about their future, whether to remain part of Canada, or begin a long and uncertain process through which Alberta could separate from Canada.”

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His voice lilted on “could,” a little rhetorical emphasis on the inherent risk of Option 2, in contrast to his pitch for Option 1.

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“I’m back home a lot these days, because we are building big things again in Alberta, thousands of new homes, high-speed rail, a new pipeline to the West Coast that will create lasting opportunity and prosperity,” he said. “Canada’s working. Truth is, we can’t achieve any of this if we’re divided. We can’t build big things on fault lines.”

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7. A Brexit-style, surprise generational shift in political attitudes, and the emergence of a new archetype of politician

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Of all the referendum results that few saw coming, Brexit, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016, stands out as maybe the most shocking.

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It cost Prime Minister David Cameron his leadership, and was a failure of sorts also for Carney, who as Governor of the Bank of England had warned Brexit would cause a recession. He then agreed to extend his term to help avert one.

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One immediate political winner was Boris Johnson, the now former prime minister whose appeal was to seem “shambolic,” as the British say, clownish, chaotic, disruptive, but massively likeable, like the earlier Torontonian archetype, the former mayor Rob Ford, who died a few months before Brexit.

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A few months after Brexit came the equally momentous surprise first election of Donald Trump, who took that same archetype to new extremes of political power.

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Britain still labours under the consequences of that political sea change. So does their Conservative Party’s revolving leadership of less charismatic figures. So, indeed, does the rest of the world, including Alberta.

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8. Elon Musk

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The tech titan does not have a perfect track record for sage prediction of domestic affairs in other countries, such as Britain where he once said civil war is “inevitable.” But he does take an interest. And, as in Germany, he can speak influentially in support of a populist right-wing movement on its way from the fringe to the mainstream of power, such as the Alternative for Germany.

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Often his interest is personal. Musk once posted, then deleted, that “Canada is not a real country” in response to news of a petition to revoke his Canadian citizenship, which is not legally possible.

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Musk posted last week on X, the social media platform he owns, in response to news of the Parti Québécois’ election: “Good. Quebec should separate. They would be better off. Alberta and Saskatchewan should separate too.”

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Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe replied with the word “No.” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith likewise voiced her disagreement.

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She said she has already voted for Option 1, “and I hope to be able to convince all of you to vote the same way.”

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