After Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, has Iran war now reached Caspian Sea?

A Ukrainian onslaught connected an Iranian commercialized vas successful the Caspian Sea could unfastened a caller beforehand successful a increasing overlap betwixt the wars successful Ukraine and the Middle East.

Iran said 1 of its sailors was killed and different wounded aft the vas was attacked connected Saturday, prompting Tehran to summon Ukraine’s diplomats and impeach Kyiv of carrying retired a “hostile and criminal” act.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said long-range strikes targeted vessels carrying subject cargo linked to Iran, arsenic good arsenic a Russian warship, arsenic helium accused Moscow of helping Iran’s subject run against the United States.

The incidental came arsenic tensions stay high contempt a intermission successful the US attacks connected Iran aft 13 consecutive nights of renewed bombardment. It besides raises questions astir whether the Caspian Sea, agelong regarded arsenic 1 of Iran’s safest maritime routes, could go different arena for confrontation.

The timing is peculiarly sensitive, with Iran already facing unit on its confederate coastline, wherever the US maintains a naval blockade astir the Strait of Hormuz, portion Yemen’s Houthi rebels proceed to disrupt shipping done the Red Sea.

Any menace to commercialized crossed the Caspian Sea would further compression 1 of Iran’s remaining strategical maritime corridors. Questions, therefore, situation whether the incidental marks the opening of a caller subject beforehand oregon simply an effort to summation economical unit connected Iran.

Here’s what we know:

Why did Iran summon Ukraine’s diplomats?

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ukraine’s complaint d’affaires successful Tehran aft what it described arsenic a “hostile and criminal” onslaught connected an Iranian commercialized vas successful the Caspian Sea, according to authorities quality bureau IRNA.

The ministry said the attack, which it claimed had been acknowledged by Ukraine’s leadership, reflected Kyiv’s continued “irrational and hostile approach” towards Iran and warned that Tehran would support its nationalist interests.

It besides described the incidental arsenic a usurpation of Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter and warned it could further grow the Russia-Ukraine war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi aboriginal discussed the incidental with the European Union overseas argumentation chief, Kaja Kallas.

According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Araghchi condemned the onslaught and called for “a steadfast response” from the UN Security Council, the EU and the wider planetary community. He besides demanded accountability for those responsible, arsenic good arsenic for countries supporting Ukraine – an evident notation to Europe’s subject assistance to Kyiv.

Tehran besides reiterated that it has ne'er straight intervened successful the Russia-Ukraine war.

What has Ukraine said?

Zelenskyy posted connected X that Ukraine had achieved “very beardown results” done long-range strikes successful the Caspian Sea, targeting “vessels utilized successful subject cargo shipments involving Iran, arsenic good arsenic a warship”. He did not place the Iranian commercialized vessel.

The Ukrainian president besides accused Russia of providing Iran with outer quality to enactment its subject run successful the Middle East.

“Since the opening of July, we person recorded progressive Russian outer surveillance of the Gulf states and US subject facilities located there. These images subsequently look successful Iran,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that Ukraine had observed “a wide correlation” betwixt Russian outer imagery and consequent Iranian attacks, saying the images were utilized some earlier strikes “in mentation for them” and afterwards “to measure the harm inflicted”.

Zelenskyy said Russian satellites monitored 4 airbases connected July 19 and 20 – 2 successful Bahrain and 1 each successful Jordan and Kuwait – and announced that Ukraine would stock the quality with its planetary partners.

“Russia indispensable beryllium stopped. This warfare indispensable beryllium stopped. Pressure connected the aggressor indispensable work,” helium said.

Why are Iran and Ukraine astatine odds?

Relations betwixt Tehran and Kyiv person deteriorated sharply since 2022, erstwhile Iran began supplying Russia with Shahed drones.

Kyiv says Moscow has since adapted the Iranian-designed drones and launched tens of thousands of them connected Ukrainian cities. According to it, Ukrainian forces person changeable down much than 44,000 Iranian-designed drones since Russia’s full-scale penetration began successful 2022.

As Iran’s confrontation with the US intensified, Ukraine has besides offered its antidrone exertion and expertise to Gulf countries targeted by Iranian rocket and drone attacks, deploying specialists to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Could the confrontation escalate further?

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said Iranians are “not truly blessed with [the Ukrainian attack], portion they are besides dealing with a US blockade connected the confederate coast”.

He said unit connected Iran’s bluish coastline was adding to increasing concerns implicit the country’s maritime commercialized routes.

Iran has not indicated whether it intends to retaliate against Ukraine. However, Iranian commentators person said Kyiv lies wrong the scope of respective Iranian rocket and drone systems, perchance giving Tehran subject options should it determine to respond.

The incidental besides came arsenic determination mediators proceed efforts to forestall the US-Israel warfare connected Iran struggle from escalating further.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei connected Sunday said mediation efforts were nether mode to forestall further escalation, though helium declined to supply details.

Axios has reported that Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and different determination mediators person presented Washington and Tehran with a connection for a 10-day intermission successful warring to let negotiations implicit a memorandum of knowing (MoU) agreed past period to resume.

Axios besides reported that US President Donald Trump was presented with plans for what would person been a 14th consecutive nighttime of aerial attacks connected Iran, but alternatively opted to springiness renewed diplomatic efforts much time.

There were besides nary reports of play attacks by Iran connected neighbours successful the Gulf, akin to its regular responses to the US ⁠attacks.

The intermission successful warring has coincided with further mediation efforts.

Analysts accidental the Ukrainian onslaught successful the Caspian Sea could beryllium an effort to exert much unit connected Tehran to unit it to marque immoderate concessions.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas said the Ukrainian onslaught was peculiarly alarming for Iran due to the fact that it suggested the struggle could dispersed to different maritime theatre.

“Iran is already experiencing struggle successful the confederate coastal provinces, arsenic good arsenic the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman and adjacent the Indian Ocean, which person turned into battlefields,” helium said.

“So, the Caspian Sea present not being harmless for the Iranians, regarding trade, is simply a immense concern.”

Atas said the incidental had heightened concerns successful Tehran astir imaginable further escalation.

While attempts to disrupt different maritime commercialized routes utilized by Iran could summation economical unit connected Tehran, attacks connected vessels linked to Iran successful the Caspian Sea could further complicate the country’s quality to prolong vigor exports and subject logistics, perchance giving the US greater leverage successful immoderate aboriginal negotiations.

However, Michael Mulroy, a erstwhile US lawman adjunct caput of defence for the Middle East, told Al Jazeera that portion Iran continues to power the Strait of Hormuz, Washington’s options are becoming progressively constricted and would look hard choices if the standoff with Iran continued.

“One is that the US could capitulate with the strait inactive closed. I don’t spot that happening with the atomic programme inactive up successful the air; that would beryllium viewed arsenic a strategical nonaccomplishment for the United States,” helium said.

The US “can either person a stalemate oregon fundamentally person a naval blockade with the Strait of Hormuz closed, but that would origin issues each astir the world”, helium added.

“It doesn’t look similar there’s immoderate benignant of breakthrough successful negotiations, and Iran seems perfectly blessed to support controlling the Strait of Hormuz.”