After Pretoria peace deal, old enemies in Ethiopia’s Tigray find new ground

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – When Ethiopia’s national authorities and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Pretoria Agreement successful November 2022, it was meant to extremity 2 years of devastating war.

The statement called for a imperishable cessation of hostilities, the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of Tigrayan forces, governmental dialog and the instrumentality of displaced people. Article 7 besides required the TPLF to refrain from conscription, training, deployment and mobilisation of subject forces, arsenic good arsenic preparations for renewed conflict.

Nearly 4 years later, the large-scale warfare has ended, but galore of the disputes that fuelled it stay unresolved.

More significantly, the play since 2024 has seen the TPLF reposition itself politically and organisationally portion retaining subject leverage and processing caller relationships.

The series is striking: TPLF contacts with Eritrean officials, including reported meetings successful Dubai and Zalambessa; a renewed conflict implicit governmental power successful Tigray; reports of recruitment and mobilisation; caller clashes involving Tigrayan forces; and the emergence of Tsimdo, a escaped convergence of groups opposed to the national government.

Taken together, the developments rise a question implicit whether Pretoria became little a completed modulation to bid than a play successful which the TPLF could regroup and reposition itself portion the underlying struggle remained unresolved.

There is nary grounds that the TPLF entered the statement with a predetermined program to usage it arsenic a tactical pause. But the events since 2024 suggest that the question has retained an organisational and information relation that Pretoria was expected to diminish.

What happened to disarmament?

Article 6 established the process for disarming, demobilising and reintegrating TPLF fighters. Tigrayan forces handed implicit dense weapons aft the agreement, and thousands of erstwhile combatants person entered demobilisation programmes.

But the process did not afloat dismantle the region’s subject structures.

In 2026, reports emerged of renewed recruitment and forced mobilisation successful Tigray. If confirmed, specified enactment would spell beyond the incomplete implementation of the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) process and straight situation Article 7’s prohibition connected conscription and mobilisation.

The favoritism betwixt organised mobilisation and the views of Tigray’s civilian colonisation is important.

There is nary ground for assuming that Tigrayans arsenic a full enactment a instrumentality to war. Many are inactive surviving with the consequences of the past conflict.

The Pretoria bid woody ended Ethiopia’s Tigray warfare but near governmental and territorial disputes unresolved, arsenic the TPLF has sought to reassert its power and physique caller strategical relationships [Getty Images] (Getty)

A civilian root successful Tigray, who spoke to Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity, said: “The radical of Tigray privation peace; we don’t privation a 2nd war.”

For those civilians, reports of recruitment transportation a elemental implication: the anticipation of being pulled backmost into a struggle they believed had ended.

How did the TPLF reposition itself?

The alteration was not lone successful the military.

From 2024, the TPLF was progressively consumed by an interior conflict implicit its absorption aft the war. The interior meetings and governmental manoeuvring formed portion of a wider contention implicit the movement’s future.

The conflict yet reached Tigray’s governmental institutions.

Getachew Reda was removed arsenic caput of the interim medication successful 2025 and replaced by Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede.

Then, successful May 2026, the Tigray determination assembly was reinstated and elected Debretsion Gebremichael arsenic president, strengthening the presumption of the faction astir him.

The developments showed that the TPLF remained a almighty governmental unit successful Tigray. Instead of a settled post-war governmental bid emerging, the portion was again caught successful a conflict implicit authorization portion the information question remained unresolved.

When did authorities crook backmost into fighting?

By aboriginal 2026, governmental tensions were accompanied by subject developments.

Tigray Defence Forces-aligned troops crossed the Tekeze River into the disputed Tselemt territory successful January and clashed with Ethiopian national forces. Later, TDF-aligned fighters took power of Alamata and Korem aft a national bid station withdrew.

By August, warring had again breached retired successful occidental Tigray adjacent the Sudanese border, successful different superior breach of the bid agreement.

The national authorities and the TPLF blamed each different for the escalation, portion work for initiating the clashes remained disputed.

But the renewed warring demonstrated that organised equipped forces were inactive susceptible of mobilising and contesting territory.

The incomplete disarmament has truthful go much consequential arsenic the governmental disputes near unresolved by Pretoria person begun to coincide with renewed subject activity.

Why are erstwhile enemies uncovering communal ground?

The repositioning has extended beyond Tigray.

Eritrea and the TPLF fought a devastating borderline warfare from 1998 to 2000. Eritrean forces aboriginal fought alongside Ethiopia’s national authorities against the TPLF during the 2020-22 Tigray war.

Yet the post-Pretoria play has brought reports of person contacts betwixt Eritrea and elements of the TPLF.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF and utilizing it arsenic a proxy. Eritrea rejects that characterisation.

A broader realignment is reflected successful the emergence of Tsimdo, a escaped convergence of groups opposed to the national government.

Recent reporting has identified practice involving the TPLF, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and different equipped groups. Fano person Zemene Kassie has confirmed the beingness of specified a conjugation portion saying Eritrea is not presently portion of it.

The value of Tsimdo lies not simply successful whether its members stock the aforesaid governmental programme, but successful what they look consenting to enactment speech to cooperate.

Major disputes stay unresolved: displaced radical person yet to instrumentality to immoderate contested areas, including Welkait, portion territorial claims proceed to disagreement Tigray and Amhara actors.

Yet groups that erstwhile fought connected opposing sides present look consenting to acceptable speech immoderate of those differences erstwhile practice tin summation unit connected the national government.

Ethiopia’s Tigray portion remains caught betwixt an unfinished bid process and renewed governmental and subject tensions astir 4 years aft the Pretoria statement ended the warfare [Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP]

That raises a further question astir the TPLF’s post-Pretoria strategy. The organisation appears to beryllium rebuilding its governmental power portion retaining links to subject structures, adjacent arsenic galore Tigrayans stay displaced and fearfulness renewed mobilisation.

The emerging convergence points to a perchance widening spread betwixt the strategical calculations of governmental and equipped actors and the contiguous interests of civilians inactive dealing with the consequences of war.

The groups person antithetic histories and governmental ambitions, and their practice whitethorn not last. But their willingness to find communal crushed against Addis Ababa matters.

For the TPLF, Tsimdo offers different arena successful which to physique governmental and strategical relationships beyond Tigray.

What did Pretoria permission unresolved?

The warfare displaced astir 1.9 cardinal people. Many stay incapable to return, peculiarly to disputed areas including Welkait, Tsegede, Humera and Raya.

Those territorial disputes stay intimately tied to the instrumentality of displaced Tigrayans, portion the governmental narration betwixt Tigray and the national authorities remains unsettled.

The national authorities has besides failed to present connected important elements of the post-war settlement. But those failures bash not erase the TPLF’s commitments nether Pretoria.

Article 6 envisaged the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of its fighters. Article 7 banned conscription, mobilisation and preparations for renewed conflict.

The grounds since 2024 does not beryllium that Pretoria was deliberately utilized by the TPLF to bargain time.

It does, however, amusement a question that has remained politically organised, fought to regain power of Tigray’s institutions, retained links to equipped structures and recovered caller imaginable partners arsenic the colony stalled.

Pretoria ended the large-scale war. It did not settee the conflict implicit power, territory and information that laic beneath it.

For Tigrayans, however, the calculations are simpler.

A young antheral from Tigray, who spoke to Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity, said: “The fearfulness of being drafted is what’s making galore younker suffer hope.”