After Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians vote for peace over nationalism

At a run rally successful Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, connected Saturday, 1 time earlier Armenia’s election, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, outfitted successful a achromatic button-up garment and a red-brimmed shot cap, held a look of determination.

Flanked by supporters waving their arms and flashing his campaign’s signature heart-shaped manus gesture, Pashinyan was perched centre stage, pounding distant connected a drum kit for the crowds – virtually drumming up support.

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By election day, his governing Civil Contract enactment appeared to person drummed up thing much consequential: nationalist backing for his imaginativeness of Armenia’s aboriginal pursuing the nonaccomplishment of the disputed portion of Nagorno-Karabakh to a crushing subject decision by Azerbaijan successful 2023. 

Pashinyan, who formed a set earlier this twelvemonth and campaigned with a bid of concerts astir the country, secured 49.8 percent of the ballot successful Sunday’s ballot, capable to clasp a parliamentary majority.

His triumph is seen arsenic a trial of his handling of the nonaccomplishment of the Nagorno-Karabakh portion and his quality to steer the state distant from Russian influence.

He has yet prevailed contempt Russian meddling successful Armenian politics, and the state present looks acceptable to reorient itself away from its erstwhile ruler – signalling Armenians’ willingness to clasp a caller direction, analysts say.

“Many Armenians are prepared to springiness his caller imaginativeness a chance: an Armenia little defined by conflict, much unfastened to normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye, and progressively focused connected gathering its aboriginal wrong its internationally recognised borders,” Zaur Shiriyev, an expert astatine the Carnegie ⁠Russia Eurasia Center, told Al Jazeera.

‘Tired of struggle and war’

The nonaccomplishment of Nagorno-Karabakh could person spelled governmental doom for Pashinyan. By handing him a 2nd term, Armenians person signalled that they are acceptable to enactment the struggle that has intermittently reared its caput for decades down them, analysts say.

“Nationalism nary longer resonates among the public, which is demonstrably bushed of struggle and war,” Richard Giragosian, manager of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, told Al Jazeera, adjacent if the nonaccomplishment of the portion remains an “open wound”, helium said.

Nagorno-Karabakh, meanwhile, nary longer features astatine each successful the Armenian government’s defence reform, nor successful its nationalist information strategy, “a last confirmation of the caller strategy of diversification”, Giragosian explained.

Peace efforts alternatively took centre signifier successful Pashinyan’s campaign, including the statement helium signed astatine the White House past August with Azerbaijan, yet ending the on-again-off-again warfare that had raged since the precocious 1980s.

Unlike successful 2021, erstwhile Pashinyan’s run was shaped by the contiguous aftermath of warfare and questions of governmental survival, Sunday’s ballot became a clearer trial of nationalist enactment for his bid agenda, Shiriyev said.

Peace implicit nationalism

The effect besides demonstrates that the nationalist mantras peddled by absorption leaders person not been capable to sway the bulk of Armenians, said Svante Cornell, manager of the Institute for Security and Development Policy and its Central Asia-Caucasus programme.

“The absorption represented a instrumentality to oligarchy, nationalism and everlastingly conflict,” Cornell told Al Jazeera.

“While the Pashinyan authorities has its flaws, it represents thing antithetic than the past.”

The predetermination saw the 2 main absorption forces – Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance – triumph 41 seats combined successful the caller parliament, against the 64 seats the authorities holds, retired of a full 105.

But Giragosian cautioned against overstating the opposition’s spot as, helium said, the 2 absorption parties are improbable to cooperate fixed the friction betwixt their leaders – Russian-Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia took 29 seats, and erstwhile President Robert Kocharian, whose Armenia Alliance won conscionable 12.

“The part and dissent wrong the absorption volition contiguous a profound obstacle,” helium said.

Although agreed successful their shared pro-Russian leanings, Karapetyan is seen by Kocharian arsenic an “interfering interloper”, with Kocharian himself resenting his third-place presumption down Karapetyan, the expert said.

“This is further exacerbated by Kocharian’s consciousness of entitlement, and his vexation of being rebuffed by Moscow successful his anterior attempts to summation nonstop Russian backing and support,” Giragosian added.

Still, Cornell said, the persistence of pro-Russian, nationalist sentiment successful Armenia mostly should not beryllium taken lightly.

Until 2020, Armenia was governed by successive administrations that spent 3 decades pushing a nationalist identity, helium said.

“To expect specified views, specified sentiments would conscionable vanish – would beryllium unrealistic,” Cornell noted.

Supporters of Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract enactment led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stitchery successful Republic Square successful Yerevan, Armenia, Friday, June 5, 2026, for the party’s last run rally [Anthony Pizzoferrato/AP]

Russian power weakened – but not gone

In the lead-up to Sunday’s election, planetary observers had accused Russia of attempting to interfere – but its inability to alteration the effect reflects Moscow’s constricted scope successful the state today, analysts say.

“Moscow inactive has tools successful Armenia, but it nary longer has the authorization it erstwhile had,” Shiriyev said.

“In today’s Armenia, being seen arsenic Russia’s preferred campaigner tin mobilise voters against you arsenic overmuch arsenic for you.”

As Armenia strives to defy what Shiriyev refers to arsenic the “gravitational pull” of the “Russian orbit”, a model of accidental has been created by Moscow’s preoccupation with its penetration of Ukraine and a caller openness from Western partners.

“The larger hazard is from not altering strategy, and the benefits of a pivot to the West are some demonstrable and fashionable successful Armenia today,” Giragosian said.

Russia, helium added, is present progressively viewed successful Armenia arsenic a “dangerously undependable alleged partner”.

Benyamin Poghosyan, an Armenia expert astatine the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, argues that the superior overseas argumentation drivers of the election, however, were determination actors – not Russia oregon the West.

“The world connected the crushed is acold much nuanced,” Poghosyan told Al Jazeera. Armenia’s aboriginal relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye, arsenic good arsenic the regional fallout from the struggle successful Iran, are acold greater influences, helium said.

There are bully reasons not to number Moscow retired completely, however. While pro-Russian forces did not prevail this time, they volition proceed to asseverate their influence, Cornell said. He referred to the cautionary communicative of different Caucasus country.

“In Georgia, the enactment of undermining a reformist and pro-Western authorities and turning the state astir to a much pro-Russian enactment took implicit 15 years,” helium said.

At the aforesaid time, Moscow inactive holds monolithic economical leverage implicit Yerevan, said the analysts.

Russia remains the superior export destination for Armenian agriculture and wine, is the main root of captious imports similar wheat, and supplies the state with heavy discounted gas, Poghosyan noted.

“Because Russia has the capableness to inflict terrible economical pain, Yerevan indispensable tread cautiously to support its halfway interests without wholly rupturing its narration with Moscow,” helium said.

Shiriyev added that galore Armenians enactment successful Russia, with families depending connected remittances, and concern ties moving deep.

“By contrast, Western integration tin inactive consciousness abstract and uncertain to galore voters. That is wherefore pro-Russian forces tin inactive summation traction, adjacent arsenic Russia’s governmental representation successful Armenia has weakened,” helium said.

A law hurdle

But portion Pashinyan’s re-election has strengthened his manus successful the country’s bid process, it has not resolved 1 cardinal sticking constituent for law alteration to guarantee it, said Shiriyev.

Azerbaijan has demanded a alteration to Yerevan’s constitution arsenic a means of guaranteeing that nary aboriginal Armenian authorities mightiness revive claims related to Nagorno-Karabakh oregon Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

“But Pashinyan lacks the two-thirds bulk needed to determination easy toward a referendum, and adjacent a referendum would beryllium politically uncertain,” said Shiriyev.

This election, Cornell said, was “a indispensable but not capable information for the bid process to advance”.

Poghosyan warned that if Baku refuses to driblet these preconditions, “the bid statement volition stay stalled, leaving some nations trapped successful a volatile authorities of ‘no war, nary peace’”.

On the question of determination normalisation, however, the outlook has shifted.

Since the bilateral bid pact was signed astatine the White House past August, Azerbaijan has lifted restrictions connected commercialized and transit with Armenia and restarted talks connected borderline demarcation – moves that Giragosian said person besides accelerated the opening for Armenia-Turkiye normalisation.

“For Armenia,” said Shiriyev, “the West whitethorn connection the road, Russia progressively acts arsenic the roadblock, and normalisation with Azerbaijan and Turkiye is the existent prize.”